|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
OK, now it gets really fun! It is fascinating to watch this market at such
a critical juncture and with all the apparent fundamental cross-currents
keeping participants in a quandary as to what the market "should" be doing.
Let's try and stick to the charts and the market internals as a guide.
The market had quite a volatile session with a furious rally that stopped
on a dime just below 1000.00 at 999.40. We then turned around and drifted
down for the remaining four hours of the trading day into the close. The
decline was very orderly but persistent, and actually stopped above a 38%
retracement of the previous leg up. It will be critical to one's trading
health to closely monitor normal support levels before jumping to the
conclusion the rally is over and loading up on shorts.
The importance of remaining flexible in this area can not be
overemphasized. IF, and that is a big if, we get above the highs on
expanding breadth this market is going to take off ala 1995. That, doesn't
look as if it is going to happen on this attempt but just be forewarned.
It doesn't look as if it is going to happen now because of the breadth
picture. Here are some things to monitor. On 1/16 we reached a peak net
breadth hourly reading of +1510, with the cash S&P at 963.88. Today, with
the S&P almost 3% higher at 992.65, we had a peak hourly breadth reading of
+1116. While further consolidation is likely, higher highs above today's
high are expected. If we are making new highs pay close attention to
breadth. If the net hourly readings for breadth remain below today's peak
reading then the rally is probably close to an end. If the breadth of the
market begins to expand the rally is almost certainly going considerably
higher.
Resistance is at today's highs. We traded into all-time high ground today
in some of the indices and I believe we had a closing all-time high in the
S&P cash. The point being that at these levels, as far as previous chart
points providing resistance, there is none!
Support levels in the S&P futures lies at 984.60, 969.70, and 974.80.
Tom Alexander
7:10pm EST
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\R_sp1.GIF"
|