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Donald Thompson wrote:
>
> Gwenn Ael Gautier wrote:
> I read this as either distribution since October, or congestion along
> the way. If we break 1000 on the SP, and the floor guys will certainly
> love to do this, and then hold it for three minutes, floor saying is
> that chances are 1000 will hold for 3 hours, and then three days. I'd
> bet for 3 weeks minimum up, next, this move is too complex to be a
> reversal. BUT THAT IS ONLY AN OPINION.
> >
> > Gwenn
>
> Gwenn,
>
> What part of the price action are you refering to as being too complex
> for a reversal??? In EW terms? Just Experience?
>
> Anything can happen, what I observe in intraday cumulative volume are
> lower highs. and each successive rally's cumulative volume SLOPE when
> eyeballed, is less and less robust.
>
> The trend line JB is refering to is around 987.50 SPX. The trend on a
> closing basis is about 971-972... The 2 Standard Deviation Bolinger Band
> as of the close is 987.77. Also 36 points 720 ticks added to the 950.86
> is 986.86. 1440 ticks from the 912 low is 984.XX To me that looks like
> a tag your it. On an intraday basis the cumulative Advance-Decline is
> just about horizontal... I put more value in cumulative volume than the
> cumulative A/D in terms of predictive value.
>
> My low risk sell with a tight stop would be after momentum starts do
> weaken after hitting some of these targets.
>
> I observe that if SPX/? sells off a bit. it can rally cumulativley for
> about 3 or 4 more days until it would take a rest, So rallying to 1000
> is a pretty real possibility.
>
> So my two ticks are a run up to 986 or so. and decline then rally..
>
> Don
Wow, that's a pretty detailed picture. I didn't get this far! I was refering to the
general picture of the daily SP chart. From its historic high, it is a tortuous
sideways thing. That breadth should be decreasing is not surprising. But with every day
that passes without further degradation, the probability for the top to be a long term
top is declining. Also, to me the floor will certainly push over 1000, then sell. If
The market can take the heat over 1000, we'll go much higher, but my guess is we aren't
ready for a move much past 1000 yet. It is probably not too risky to get in short
somewhere at current levels and stop if 1000 holds for three days. I always like taking
a position facing the market and with a wall in the back, rather than having the market
all around me. Floor traders work that way at the opening.
Gwenn
Gwenn
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