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Realtraders,
I am thinking about something new for Relatreaders...hear me out.
In an attempt to utilize the vast wealth of knowledge of our members, I
thought I would present an opportunity in which we could invoke, as a
group, a topic of analysis relating to a market or security that would
last for several days. This "Market of the Week (MOTW)" security (for lack
of a better name) will include major market averages, commodities and
individual stock securities (including sector analysis), thus providing an
'interest' to the vast array of members that we have on our forum.
Simply, my intentions are generate a thorough and comprehensive
interpretation for this "Market of the Week" security. Your analysis can
be either short or long-term in nature, or both. As an example, if someone
has an Energy Point EP that is 3 days away, 3 weeks away or even 3 months
away and you want to share it, be my guest. Your information, I am sure
will be useful to someone. However, I do want to say this: I am looking
to achieve an atmosphere in which the analysis and dialogue is greater
than, "I think it is going up" or "I agree". Therefore, as a continuing
example, if you say that you have an EP for this market on a particular
date, please include some of the relevant information that was used to
generate your date, such as which pivot points did you use or which
multiplier was used, etc.
For those who want to include a chart or graph, please try to save it as a
.gif file. Usually, this will shrink your file down to 10 to 15k in size
and will not inundate other member with long downloads.
Therefore, without further delay, this weeks MOTW security is the S&P 500
Cash Index or for you commodity traders the S&P March contract.
Attached is a 60 min chart of the S&P 500 Cash Index dating back to the
October highs.
What I would like to point out is the overhead resistance that we are now
experiencing. Take a look at the downtrend line which connects the
previous highs. As you can see, yesterdays (1/20/98) high bumped us up to
that line and we have since rolled over. When you combine this resistance
level with the over bought nature of the stochastics oscillator, it
suggests that this pullback should have been expected.
Further, notice the dark red lines on the chart, these represent
symmetrical waves that I have been following based on this current rally.
The first line (the one dating in December) represents wave 1-2. The
second line Wave 3-4 (January) measures the same length as the first line
and as you can see, indicates that the current rally has symmetrically
matched Wave 1-2 further giving confluence to the resistance level
mentioned above.
Finally, on a short term basis, my analysis indicates that we are in a
very large trading range and should be traded accordingly. However, as I
mentioned in past posts, we STILL have a downward bias on this market based
on Symmetry Wave Analysis (my favorite, for more information on symmetry,
see below). So, how do I play this, I am looking for support down to the
940-950 level at which point we should stabilize and possible make a new
attempt to rally to the old highs. If we should decline greater than 940,
more caution should be taken and I will need to reevaluate at that time.
Hopefully this MOTW idea sounds good to our members and I am looking
forward to seeing insightful analysis/interpretation on these securities.
Thanks you,
John Boggio - RT Moderator
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\motw0121.gif"
For recent commentary and more informations regarding SymWave, please go to:
Commentary: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/disc7_toc.htm
Info regarding SymWave: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/boggiobio.htm
Thank you.From ???@??? Wed Jan 21 22:10:36 1998
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Date: Wed, 21 Jan 1998 22:43:59 -0800 (PST)
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To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Tomorrow??
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Status: O
I was a kid in Jr. High when Nixon went down the tubes in what seemed like
days. What did the markets do during that time? May be a hint as to what
to look for in the next few days/weeks.
Just wondering ... I wasn't following the market too closely back then.
Mark
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