Re: Econ: Asia Crisis?

[TRaffertu <TRaffertu@xxxxxxx>]

In a message dated 98-01-11 20:14:59 EST, chamberlin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:

<< We will see very little reduction in revenues from asia because we don't
sell anything over here anyway. >>

        Hi John,

         While that statement may or may not be true, I think it misses the
mark on the Asian crisis.  Seems to me the biggest potential problem lies in
the truley huge amounts of US paper asian banks hold.  If siginificant amounts
of this paper is liquidated, due to runs or bank failures it would have a long
lasting downward effect on US markets.  I suspect that this would trigger a
chain reaction of redemptions in IRA's, etc.  The potential is there for a
prolonged downward spiral, i.e. 1929-1934.

          Hopefully, infusions of capital by the IMF and western banks will
provide the liquidity to avoid this process, or as a minimum allow the orderly
redemption of US assets where necessary.

                                    Good luck and good trading,
                                             Ray Raffurty