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To all newer traders.
As we have all been reading with wonder all about the history,
workings and other stuff about Fibbonaci, Gann, Murray, etc etc ad nauseum.
Let me offer an opinion back by two funny but real stories.
To a trader, as opposed, to a theoretician, does any of this
matter... Very little. Does it work.... maybe. Do I as a trader care
why..... NO!!!
First story:
Back in 1988 Kent Calhoun wrote an article relating to short
term trading. One of the things he related was designing a trading system for
T-Bonds. He said when he was done it worked great. Then he tried it on the
S&P, and consistently lost with it. He concluded what he had worked fine for
the bonds, but not for any other markets. A while later he gave the system to
a friend, who was interested in the bonds. Later he realized he hadn't
warned him not to try it on the S&P. His friend called and said it worked
great on the bonds but worked even better on the S&P. He was making good
money in the S&P. Kent said he went back and retried it himself in the S&P
and flat couldn't make money with it. HIS conclusion. It really wasn't the
system, but the trader that mattered!!!
2nd Story:
I currently work with a fellow whom I know to be successfully
daytrading the S&P. One of the things that bothered me a little was his use
of one of the indicators he uses didn't make sense within the context of his
use. He is in places flat misinterpreting it. I asked him about this. His
comment was if he learned all the things I knew that made his use wrong, then
it probably would cease being useful to him. But using it as he understood
it, right or wrong, it was making him money. It finally hit me, that the
indicator wasn't nearly as important, as understanding how you were going to
use it and then applying it consistently with good money management. Hmmm..
Based on these things to me all this discussion about Fib stuff,
does it work, why, etc, may be of academic interest, but as a trader, A
TRADER, as Rett Butter so aptly put it: "Frankly my dear I don't give a
damn"
Pete
PS. Flame retardent duds are in place.
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