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Marc,
You are averageing 1/2 cent per trade. The system may have good potential but my guess is you could feel much more comfortable trading it if it was about 60 percent wins. This would kick your profit/trade up considerably.
In any system development always look at the Net Profit to Gross profit ratio. This gives an idea of the system efficiency. My personal preference is to have this be 0.6:1.0 or better. Hope this helps.
Karl
:Here is a trading system for coffee. I developed this using end of day data
:on super charts. It uses a 2 cents money management stop ($750), and $100 for
:slippage and commissions. No other assumptions used. I began paper trading
:it today and the actual results were very similar to results given by
:supercharts. There is a slight difference due to rounding. Let me know what
:you think of the system. I think it look pretty good when you look at overall
:profitability in relation to drawdown. Question is whether you could sit
:through 6 losing trades in a row. Possibly.
:
:
:Marc'sCoffee Coffee 03/98-Daily 03/03/97 - 12/05/97
:
: Performance Summary: All Trades
:
:Total net profit $ 43917.13 Open position P/L $ 0.00
:Gross profit $ 137910.88 Gross loss $ -93993.75
:
:Total # of trades 286 Percent profitable 42%
:Number winning trades 121 Number losing trades 165
:
:Largest winning trade $ 6052.63 Largest losing trade $ -850.00
:Average winning trade $ 1139.76 Average losing trade $ -569.66
:Ratio avg win/avg loss 2.00 Avg trade(win & loss) $ 153.56
:
:Max consec. winners 5 Max consec. losers 6
:Avg # bars in winners 0 Avg # bars in losers 0
:
:Max intraday drawdown $ -7036.13
:Profit factor 1.47 Max # contracts held 1
:Account size required $ 9286.13 Return on account 473%
:
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