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Thanks for the quick input guys.
Especially for the corrections I need to make. Phew.... this trading
bussiness is DIFFICULT!!!!
CORRECTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
> Another interesting thing: Have we had another outside day failure?
> Yes on Sep 11 we had one, and look what happened (arrow). A 13cent
decline
> ( almost $5,000!!)
> Did we have any astronomical events? Well - we had Saturn opposite Sun on
> Sep 9 (180 degrees)two days before the top,
Saturn opposite Sun was OCTOBER 9 not september (so there is no connection
there)
But
I forgot to mention that at least the outside day was on a Thursday and the
failure next day a Friday like today.
> If we look at the DEC-MAR spread, the premium DEC has been trading at, is
> declining, so I think the bullish pressure is off a little. (In August
the
> spread was 20,5 and we are now down to 5)
I have been told that DEC Coffee is DEAD /(only 147 contracts traded) and
to look at the Mar-May spread.
And doing that I find that it doesn't actually support my thesis. The
spread has INCREASED from aprox 3 to 8.5 since Nov 1st. Which should
undermine my analysis somewhat.
So what we have learned today, is how difficult it is to think about
EVERYTHING and how EASY it is to make a mistake that can have meaning on
the result.
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