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Well if you remember my Dec Coffee analysis you may think I made a fortune
on that one. But with a small account (tight stops), of course I messed up.
I think I went in and out 3 times and made a total of 2,500 out of aprox
7,000 possible.
Like Norman said, it was an intellectual success but not a financial one.
But now I have another intellectual setup in MAR Coffee that I hope to
handle better, if it unfolds.
(I hope it's better than my Gold analysis which was a stinker....)
Saturn is Trine Sun today.(120 degrees)
We had a bullish outside day yesterday which should indicate rising prices,
But could it be a fooler?
Yes I think so. Look at DEC Coffee: Yesterday was a Hanging Man (the lower
shadow could be longer however..) (Bearish) and the 2 days before that
could qualify as a "Harami Cross" which is also a trend change pattern.
(The doji however is not totally inside the white body the day before, but
since the close is below the lower part of the day, that fact could
compensate) anyway the whole pattern "smells" of T/C Because:
Furthermore Dec Coffee did not make a higher high yesterday, while Mar
Coffee did a non-confirmation of the high.
If we look at the DEC-MAR spread, the premium DEC has been trading at, is
declining, so I think the bullish pressure is off a little. (In August the
spread was 20,5 and we are now down to 5)
We have at least 4 important wave projections that hit just above the close
of yesterday
1 at 170,40 we have a 50% retracement of the X-A decline.
2 at 169,975 we have 50% advance of wave 1-3 projected from top of 3.
3 at 170,20 Wave 5 is equal in length to wave 1-3 .
4 at 171 wave E-B is equal to wave 1-5
I could find more coincidences but I think these are the most important.
Furthermore check the trend line we just hit, That is also giving
resistance.
Another interesting thing: Have we had another outside day failure?
Yes on Sep 11 we had one, and look what happened (arrow). A 13cent decline
( almost $5,000!!)
Did we have any astronomical events? Well - we had Saturn opposite Sun on
Sep 9 (180 degrees)two days before the top, See 1st paragraph above.
Coincidentally the top on that day was 171. Yesterday was 170,55.
TIME: Below the chart we see 2 histograms that indicates a top in the
period 4-7 Dec.
I would qualify this as a trade where one have the odds on one's side. I
wouldn't be surprised if one could sell short in the 169-170 area and with
a stop at 171,25 have a "low" risk high reward trade on ones hand.
Good luck,
Stig
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