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Realtraders,
Several days ago, I posted an analysis stating that I was looking for a
short-term top at the 95500 level on the SP Z7, followed by a pullback.
Well, on 11/17/97 we hit a high of 95420 and suggested that short-term
'short' positions be taken. Subsequently, the market pulled back to the
93780 level and has again started to rally. Personally, I was looking for
a pullback into the area of 93600 or below.
Currently, it is 9:00 am est on 11/20 and it looks like the futures are
going to open up 450 to the 95250 level. If the market can sustain this
possible higher open and then finds the strength to trade over 95550, I
would suggest that you look to cover your short positions. (Note: this
recommendation is mainly presented to the "short-term" trader). For those
of you who believe the market has had a technical and fundamental shift in
direction from bullish to bearish/or are looking for a bigger correction, I
do not believe it is necessary to cover your short positions at this time.
Even if we trade above 95550. However, if we continue to rally higher than
the old highs, that would be your signal to cover that intermediate short
position.
Finally, I don't mean to sound bearish BUT my intermediate analysis STILL
'indicates' a downward bias for the overall direction on the markets while
the short-term charts could indicate a move back to the old highs (but that
too, is too soon to tell). When I consider the recent action in the BOND
market, and the fact that "everybody" is saying that we should buy bonds at
this time, I am beginning to wonder if we could be seeing a double or
triple top in this market. I know that recently we have had a decoupling
in bonds verse stocks, but in my opinion, if we saw a couple of large
sell-offs days in bonds, I believe this would also adversely affect the
stock market and will help lead to our 20% correction that I have mentioned
so many times in the past.
Personally, I am playing both sides of this market. If the overall
market or stock or sector looks strong for the day, I will day-trade that
security from the long-side. If the market looks weak, I will stand aside
or go short the futures.
Now I know it is hard to update you as too all my thoughts and run this
Realtraders' Forum and Trade, but I will do my best to accommodate
everybody to give timely suggestions and forecast,as well as "overall"
thoughts as to my current outlook and analysis.
Hope this helps,
John Boggio
For recent commentary and more informations regarding SymWave, please go to:
Commentary: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/disc7_toc.htm
Info regarding SymWave: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/boggiobio.htm
Thank you.
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