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Realtraders,
Enclosed below is a symmetrical short-term analysis of the S&P 500 using
a 15 minute time frame. For the purpose of this analysis, I will be using
the December futures contract (SP Z7).
Several days ago, I posted an analysis titled, "MKT Symmety S&P 500
Long-term 11/6/97" and in my P.S., I referred to an small internal wave
structure that measured approximately 3900 basis points (actually it
measured 3950 bpts). Anyhow, here is a continuation of such analysis.
Since the 10/28/97 low of 844, the market rallied to a high of 94150 on
10/29/97 which will be referred to as Wave A. Subsequently, the market
declines to a low of 90200 on 10/30/97, Wave B. This decline measures 3950
basis points (and was referred to in my earlier post as mentioned above).
The leeway (rule) will be 20% of 3950 or 790 bpoints. Therefore, our target
zone will be in the range of 3160 - 4740 basis points
Next, from the 90200 Wave B low, the market rallies to a high of 95500 on
11/5 (Wave C), and again begins to decline to a low of 91750 on 11/7 and
this decline measures 3750 and MATCHES the original Wave A-B. (Note on
11/7/97, I sent a post to the forum indicating that we had a symmetrical
match and that you should have avoided selling at that time).
Since that 11/7/97 low of 917.50, we rallied to a high of 94000 and
again have been selling off ever since. At present, we have again formed a
new low, lower than the 91750 level and currently stands at today's low
91300. If we measure this low from the Wave C high of 95500, we get a
decline of 4200 and are still within the original Wave A-B leeway zone.
Thus we STILL HAVE A SYMMETRICAL MATCH. Also note on the chart that we
have just hit he 38% Fibonacci retracement level base on the 844 low and
the 955 high. Further, notice the oversold and slightly divergent
Stochastics oscillator which adds to the confluence and is also suggesting
that we have reached a temporarily support level.
How do we play this? Don't sell at this time. As a matter of fact, for
the short term traders, look to go long! Personally, I just bought the S&P
and also AMAT and YHOO and will be looking elsewhere to go long. However,
this is for the short-term trader and these positions will be sold most
likely in the next few days.
Based on my symmetrical analysis, I have a protective STOP placed on the
SP Z7 if the market declines below 90760. Please note: I do see some mild
support at the 90200 level which may appear to provide support to the
market BUT since we would have BROKEN THE ORIGIANAL WAVE A-B WAVE
STRUCTURE, I DO NOT BELIEVE THE 90200 LEVEL WILL HOLD FOR TOO LONG and a
more serious resumption of the decline will begin.
With the above paragraph being said, I believe I jumped the gun a little
because I just wanted to briefly talk about the psychology of the market
and my interpretations/expectations of today's Federal Reserves Board
Meeting. Basically, I believe the Federal Reserve will do NOTHING today,
especially in lieu of the recent Asian market turmoil. Thus, I am
expecting a "relief rally" to emerge later today and when you combine this
with my short-term analysis as discussed above, I do foresee some
opportunities that will emerge. However, this relief rally should be
relatively short-lived with my early projection for a rally to the
95500-96500 level (currently we are at 91900). Therefore, be prepared to
sell into the rally or to use tight protective trailing stops so as to lock
in profits along the way.
Finally, once we get up to the 'early' projected level of 95500-96500, I
again am expecting a rollover in the market. And a serious continuation of
the decline from the all time high should again begin. This decline should
be in the magnitude of 20.5% as specified in my long-term analysis of the
markets using this method of symmetrical wave analysis.
Hope this helps. Questions, comments and concerns are always welcome.
John Boggio
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\sysp1112.gif"
For recent commentary and more informations regarding SymWave, please go to:
Commentary: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/disc7_toc.htm
Info regarding SymWave: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/boggiobio.htm
Thank you.From ???@??? Wed Nov 12 16:26:56 1997
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Date: Wed, 12 Nov 1997 11:43:57 -0600
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From: Eric <eric3@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Dow Futures Fair Value
References: <3.0.32.19971111100500.006eac78@xxxxxxxx>
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Status:
RTer's,
Have any of your data services begun providing the Premium reading for
the Dow futures vs DJIA? DTN doesn't seem to know what I am talking
about when I ask them.
Has anyone seen a source of daily "fair value" computation for this
premium?
Thanks,
Eric
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