|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Stig,
Let the force be with you! Excellent trade!
Wish I could explore this market as well, but I am deep in Hogs, and Sugar!
Frank
-----Original Message-----
From: Stig Olausson [SMTP:olausson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Wednesday, November 05, 1997 7:16 AM
To: RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject: FUT:Dec. Coffee
RT's
There seems to be an excellent oppotunity, low risk high reward (if that
can be said about coffee...). And there are so many indicators that I don't
know where to start.
Anyway:
Elliotwave: There seems to bee a 5wave raise from beg 1996 to5/29/97 and
here it start getting interesting to us.
Yesterday could be the end of a large ABC correction from that date.
End A wave ends (Which can be divided int 5 waves)7/21/97 at 145.95 Close
End B wave ends (subdivided into abc waves) 9/4/97 at 195 close
End C wave? ends (Subdivided into 1-2-3-4-5 wave pattern)11/4/97? at 144.3
close
Low wave A= 144 Low wave C?=142.5 (Close =144.3) = Support
61.8% retracement of the upwave from 7/16/97 (the lowest point in my Dec
coffee chart) to top 5/29/97 =144.57 = support
61.8% of Wave A measuret from top of wave B and down =143.59 = support
We are trading at the price of 144 which according to Bryce Gilmore
("Geomertry odf Mrkets) is the nost important number in the universe and
often seen in connection with trend change.
The length of Wave C is 61 Calendardays. (30,60,90 days often seen in
connection with TC)
A 6% swingchart in Robert Miner's Dynamic Trader shows a collection of time
clusters on Nov 4 and 5 indicating TC
According to Norman Winski's Astro-Trend 97-98 Forecast and Trading Manual,
Capricorn is the ruler of Coffee and on Nov 5 Venus is entering Capricorn
which could indcate trend Change (is that right Norman?)
Nov 5 is also a a"Minor Astro Day" as stated in supertrader's almanac
Sometimes connected to TC
Nov 6 is 225 degrees of a Gann Year " " ", sometimes connected to
TC
An Andrews Pitchfork drawn from top 5/29/97, top 8/4/97 and bottom 7/21/97
shows that wave C is closely tracking the upper sloping trend line and
only a minor move up would break that resistance.
And finally yestersday was an almost perfect Candelstick "Bullish Hammer"
And, I almost forgot, it was also a key reversal day (Lower low than the
day before and higher close than the day before).
I you have studied Robert Miner's tutorials, this would be a textbook setup
for a high probabillity Trend Change.
There are also a couple of time projections
1) from Top 5/29/97 to top9/4/97 * 0,618 that ends up at nov 4
2)8/11/97 to 9/4/97 *2,618 =nov 6
But the beauty of this, is that we should be able to make money even if we
are wrong:
I will enter a stop order to buy dec Coffee at 144.7 (just above
yesterday's high) and if I am filled I am entering a STOP AND REVERSE order
below yesterdays low.
Because if this coffee is not going up on these arguments, it's probably
going down HARD, and this time I am not going to repeat the same mistake I
made on my last coffee trade. I was wrong, in a similar situation, but
didn't think about stop and reverse until afterwards. so let's see if we
are getingt a second chance.
Regards
stig
|