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Another way of measuring the demographic effect is to compare the savers
(40-49) to the spenders (25-34) using numbers provided by the Census
Bureau. The ratio of the first to the second overlaid on an inflation
adjusted chart of the Dow fits very nicely. Either the actual ratio or the
5 year momentum of the ratio has called the major long term turns in the
Dow this century. The actual ratio peaks 2003-2004 while the 5 year
momentum peaked last year.
BTW, a Bureau of Labor Statistics study suggests the peak savings year as
age 45.
Ron Griess
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