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Clyde,
I noted the fourier wave work that you posted. One conclusion is that
the composite implies price trend is down. My only question and it is
also put to the rest of the group.
What is the appropriate amount of data needed to find a cycle of any
given length?
In statistics I have found one referance, that if one wanted to get a
decent standard deviation for one year that ten years of data is needed
to get a SD of statistical credibility.
Since you are using weekly data going back to 1940 a cycle length of 29
years is barely contained in the data set. If one used the above rule
of 1 from ten then you need quite abit of data to get a 29 year cycle.
Wouldn't it be statistically wiser to comb using daily with a cut off of
10 years to compromise?
Respectfully,
Don Thompson
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