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Dave,
You're absolutely right about the short side of this market. I also think you can play this market on the short side, as long as Sugar closes below the support level at 11.70. You see, there are many ways to profit here. One thing is for certain, I will never try to chase this market. The real challenge is to stay on the right side, and exit on time when it hits your stop level.
This market shows a very strong balance, meaning prices keep bouncing up and down from its support and resistance levels. I thinks this might be a good candidate for day trading, but I am a position trader, and rather wait and see some sign of break out, either to the up or down side.
Happy trading,
Frank
-----Original Message-----
From: David Ickes [SMTP:harmony01@xxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, October 25, 1997 4:09 PM
To: RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject: FUT:March Sugar
Frank,
You said:
I am not a bar chartist like you, but to add to your March Sugar's
observation, I have the
following:
1) Weekly trend is down, but the daily trend is up and rising,
2) The momentum indicator(ADX) is at 13. This could be a good signal of
a possible
breakout,
3) Open Interest, and Volume are increasing, meaning fuel, and liquidity
are added to this
market,
4) I have a support at 11.70, and resistance at 11.90. This Friday,
Sugar closed right below the resistance level.
You have given great rerasons for being short this market:
1. Until weekly trend changes, it's still south
2. ADX indicates breakout . . . to downside maybe??
3. With Open Interest increasing, I believe that's bearish. Here's why. The
commercials are the boss of these commodities. Commercials are basically
hedgers. Therefore, increased OI indicates more selling than buying by the
'bog boys'
4. The 11.90 resistance has not been broken yet!
I would be very cautious of any buys here based on # 1 & 3. The sidelines
is prudent here. BTW What's the public think; they're often wrong!!
Dave
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