|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
> From: TWA7663@xxxxxxx
> Date: Wed, 24 Sep 1997 10:46:55 -0400 (EDT)
> To: ricrat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: MKT:Cycle work,NP,Turning point,R&W
> Rick,
>
> I enjoy your RT remarks.
>
> I am curious about your prediction of a TOP Friday. I do NOT disagree.
> However, isn't a downturn next week contrary to the normal seasonality that
> usually sees an upturn in the last 2-3 days of the month and the first few
> days of the month? There is usually a lot of money coming into the market at
> this time. Have your FDates predicted TOPS and BOTTOMS better than strong
> seasonal forces?
>
> Russ
>
>
Hi Russ.
Fdates does NOT predict whether a turn is to be a TOP or a BOTTOM. I
also perform cycle analysis which helps in this regard.
According to my cycle analysis, the market is expected to turn DOWN
come 9/29. This is real close to the 9/26 Fdate (and other time days)
call for a turn in this market.
As for Fdates predicting turns better than seasonal forces, you bet!
Seasonals tend to provide an idea as to what to expect, but you sure
can't attach a very accurate turn date to it. Yet, you need to
understand that one does not replace the other.
For example: Say the seasonals call for Beans to go up till November.
Does it go straight up? No. It goes up, then retraces, then goes up,
then retraces some more or may even change trend, go down, rally, go
down and changes trend again (this is just an example EWave traders,
please don't get technical on what wave it is, etc. :) and continues
up till November/December.
Fdates is designed to located as many of those reversals as it can.
So that means some weeks I will say the market is going down, then
the next week it is going up, then the next week down, etc. I'm just
calling the turns, not the whole direction of the market.
I hope this clears it up for you.
So, if your sesonals are calling for the market to climb, then stick
with your analysis. Even if the market does TOP this Friday/Monday,
if your seasonals are correct, the top will be very short term.
cheers!
:)
rick
======================================
http://FSoftPublishing.com
======================================
|