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In light of Friday's large run-up in T-Bonds, I thought the LDB numbers
were worthy of note (they can be found at
http://www.cbot.com/ldbn-us6.htm )
The December contract is heavily long in retail (CTI4 net position of
14035) and heavily short in commercial (CTI2 net position of -9005). It
has been my experience that a discrepancy like this is usually resolved
in the commercial's favor.
It will also pay to make note of Open Interest change in Friday's
trading. (usually available at about 8:30 ET on the following trading
day at http://www.cbot.com/clbfvolt.htm ). If there's a significant
decrease in Open Interest, then there is less credence lent to Friday's
run-up and I would expect a quick retracement. If Open Interest change
is flat or significantly higher, we just might be slowly building the
potential for a quicker and more drastic downturn.
Any other comments for those versed in reading these numbers?
Bob Hunt
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