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Realtraders,
For those who may not have noticed, shortly after the market closed today (9/11), Motorola MOT announced that 3Q results will be 'significantly' below analyst views. From what I can see, MOT is already trading down about 8 points in the third market. Further, Lucent Technologies, LU, is showing a bid 3 points lower than todays close. This is not a good sign for the tech sector, as well as the overall market to begin tomorrows trading.
Personally, if tomorrow's PPI and Retail sales indicate sustained spending, this could adversely affect the bond market, simultaneously driving down stock prices. Thus tomorrow could be a very important day as an indication for the future direction of these markets over the next few weeks.
IMO, if we break down below the recent lows set in the S&P on 8/18 and 8/29, then, based on my symmetry analysis, we should continue to decline in the stock indices approximately a total of 10% +/-2% from the Aug 7th all-time highs. This translates into the vicinity of 878 on the S&P CASH. The good news is that this level should provide strong support. Hence, a strong BUT unsustainable rally should begin. The bad news is that this rally should NOT exceed the Aug 7th high. As a matter of fact, this rally may merely be a dead cat bounce of approximately 50-63% of the overall decline or has the potential of forming a significant DOUBLE TOP formation in this stock index.
Subsequently, the decline will resume and we should expect a decline in the magnitude of 20.5% +/-4.1% from the all-time high. As it stands now, this will be the Aug 7th high.
So, as I said earlier, tomorrow can be a very important day. If we convincingly exceed the recent lows, then I suspect the market is in the process of forming a major top in which a decline of 20% should be expected. If we do not break down tomorrow or Monday, and rally, then based on my style of analysis, we will have averted any further declines for some time. Hence, we will rally and exceed the Aug.7th high, as we continue this phenomenal bull market rally.
Hope this helps to stimulate your analysis, John Boggio
PS Several members and gurus have suggested possible dates which may provide increased energy in these markets, it may be helpful if you can coincide their dates with my projected support and resistant levels to achieve maximum results. Some dates to remember are Sept 15-16, Sept 24, and Sept 27-29.
PSS For more complete information regarding the 20% symmetrical wave structure, please see some of my OLD posts which can be found at the below address. For recent commentary and more informations regarding SymWave, please go to:
Commentary: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/disc7_toc.htm Info regarding SymWave: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/boggiobio.htm
Thank you.
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