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Bought Bernstein's seasonals analysis to compare with my Moore's
Research collection of studies. I barely
took a look at Jake's stuff. There was just no comparison with the
mathematical superiority of Moore's Research. Jake is really a
Psychologist by training, not a Statistician.
Try www.mrci.com. The monthly subcription will give you a great feel
for the seasonality of different commodities. They give a running tally
of thier straight seasonal recommendations, with no other criteria or
tools. They do not even try to determine if the commodity is in a bear
or bull market. They can still get good profitable results. But it is
not a whole system.
Thier are other studies you can purchase where each year is charted and
the bear and bull trends are treated seperately for your own value
judgement in considering a market. I use it to supplement my
Elliottwave, Fibinnoci and decades of fundamental knowledge. Of course,
I would argue that seasonals are fundamentals, they are so evidently a
part of the mechanics.
Farmers sell directly out of the field during the fall harvest of
soybeans. The corresponding drop in price can be statistically stated as
93% of the time from approximately Sept 18 to Oct. 7 you can average
$1250.00 profit on a Sell trade. Average drawdown is also stated, but
Stop Loss is always ridiculously high like $1500.00. Most trader's will
work with a lot tighter Stop after identifying an entry point that is
close to a resistance (fibinnoci retracement) line.
My working with seasonals gives them validity, but not the Holy Grail.
My exact Entry and Exit points rely on other considerations.
> Joe Frabosilio wrote:
> >
> > Hi,
> > I want to start trading in the futures market. I trade short term stocks
> > and stock options. The problem is that I'm a real beginner with the
> > futures area. The other night, I saw this 30 min spot of Jake Bernstein
> > on "Trade your way to Richs". He also, has a book called "The Compleat
> > Day Trader".
> >
> > Has anyone used his system? Also, on the book is that for beginners or
> > more advanced traders.
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