|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
portales@xxxxxxxx wrote:
>
> Hi RT's ,
> My computer was down for a couple of days and took a break.
> So I had time for some reflection and have been wondering:
> Is it possible to think that, with all this advance in technology
> and trading systems everywhere, nobody ( this is an assumption )
> has been able to find a system capable of finding the position
> of the Close in relation to the Open?.
> Have you thought that , if a system / indicator / strategy
> ( whatever the name ) were capable of predicting when the Close
> is going to be higher / lower than the Open , say 60 % of the
> times could make you a ton of money?; I'm not talking about how
> much higher or lower , I'm not talking about numbers. I'm talking
> just about relative position : either HIGHER OR LOWER.
> Sounds simple but, is it really ?. Even if the difference between
> Close and Open were a mere tick, ( and we all know is a lot more
> than that most of the times ), if you had that ' weapon' to know when
> to go long / short and place your order below / above the open because
> you know that, 6 times out of 10, the Close would end above / below
> the Open.
> Anybody with some ideas to share about this "SIMPLE" (?) way
> to make( a lot of ) money in the markets?
>
> Efrain R Portales
> Fort Worth
> efrain12@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Efrain,
Have spent quite a bit of time studying this phenomenon. It is harder to
trade than you think. :) . I have a set-up pattern that, historically
and in real trading, does exactly what you are talking about. This
set-up will predict a higher or lower close about 60% of the time.
Even made some money trading it....... BUT
Intensive testing of the setup revealed that, while it was correct 60%
of the time or better, in the long run, once commissions and slippage
were figured in, it was a losing strategy.
My conclusion is that it is not enough to know whether the market is
going to close higher or lower in relation to the open. You have to
have some other tool such as some type of volatility gauge to
determine if the profit will be enough to make the strategy
practical. Only adopting this strategy at times of increased volatility
might net you the profits you need, but NOW, you have to figure out
where to place your stops.......... :)
Walt Downs
CIS Trading
http://www.cistrader.com
|