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Let me present a modified view. With tongue in cheek, if one indicator
doesn't work find another one. If the cycle length doesn't fit change it.
Sort of like EWavers changing counts. This is mean't to be a little self
criticism in that this extra volatility we have been having needs a more
adaptive indicator than has been used previously. This is a very good
example of why adaptive systems do have a place in analysis and should be
given serious consideration. The daily ranges are generating buy and sell
signals in the same day and traders taking end of day signals are at a
losing disadvantage. In trying to figure out how to get a handle on this
extra volatility I decided to turn on the status of the adaptive Modified
Volatility Index(bottom plot) to see how it compared to the non adaptive
version(second from bottom). What a surprise. The adaptive version went on
a sell at the close of 8/21 and has remained on a sell. The best buy and
sell signals come from the upper and lower bands in both adaptive and non
adaptive system. When the non adaptive is tracking the center line there
is a lot of up and down motion in the index intraday but is not giving a
day to day directional clue. Will continue to track both of these and see
how they play out.
BobR
At 03:42 PM 8/28/97 -0700, James Charles wrote:
>Ronald McEwan wrote:
>>
>> For the record:
>>
>> I received an intra day buy signal on the AMOSS this morning and started
>> a position of long OEX Sep 915 Calls. As my signals confirm this move I
>> will add to my position. If there is no confirmation I will liquidate.
>>
>> Good Luck
>> Ron McEwan
>
>Hi Guys,
>
>I too had a signal at the close yesterday and intraday this morning to
>buy OEX calls; it happpens I bought the 920's today and the 940's
>yesterday. I had big drawdown today as I held my positions. The problem
>with this price action is that these end of session rallies lately erase
>some of the day's earlier losses but there they are not strong enough to
>move the indexes up on the daily charts. I suspect the large houses are
>orchestrating this action but for me to understand what this will mean
>to the market on the daily charts I first need to better understand what
>they are doing and why. The tech downgrades earlier actually suggest to
>me that the houses may be low on inventory. What are your opinions? Why
>don't these rallies follow through?
>
>Best wishes,
>
>James
>
>
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