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Rick_Ratchford wrote:
>
> Talking about being baited! Lots of ho hum in Soybeans the last few days
> but all indications indicate that this market is primed for a good move
> up.
>
> I've thrown everything I have in this one in the way of technicals and
> and cycle work and she should be budging soon.
>
> Sadly, I underestimated her and ended up stopped out by 1/4 point!
> That's right, 1/4 point from the very low to watch her go back up 3
> cents plus and then close.
>
> Well, needless to say, I'll be looking to find a place to get back in.
> But if this puppy tries for that low and moves it one more time, I'm
> looking elsewhere for my next vacation money.
>
> Any Fungalmentals anyone wishes to share? :)
>
> rick
>
> --
> **** http://FSoftPublishing.com ****
> Market Of The Week Forecast
> http://FSoftPublishing.com/forecast/forecast.htm
Yep, it's a bear market rally. DOESN'T KNOW QUITE WHAT TO DO. Go UP or
go Down. Choppy. Not impulsive like you or me.
But would like to add a fundamental or two. Harvest will begin in 2 to
3 weeks for beans. To put it bluntly, harvest pressure puts a downward
seasonality on prices. So far the seasonality of beans have been right
on. Spring high, slide down, rebound before harvest and another slide
down. Moore's research has some good statistical work in seasonality.
All fundamentals are in line for a record harvest due to record
acreages and high yields. The pipeline for raw beans will be filled
straight from the fields. Demand probably will not be an issue until
the initial harvest selling has subsided. The usual fundamental flip
flop of rational for market movements.
Also, an Elliottwave count of mine shows beans making a corrective move
up. The market must then move down impulsively if the count is correct.
It is just another indication for a short situation coming up soon.
An Added note for posterity: To be long going into harvest scares the
shit out of me. It happens just too rarely and in my mind is a BIG
gamble.
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