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Hello All,
Here's an Elliott view for consideration.
I'm torn between two scenarios for the time frame of April to the present.
Apart from the idea that we should start counting from 4/28 (a 5th wave
failure from the previous C (3/11 to 4/28) of the Flat (2/13 to 4/28)), the
"bottom" in this middle to late April period is important. The count I have
goes, wave 1, 4/28 - 5/6. Wave 2, 5/6 - 6/5. Wave 3, 6/5 - 8/7, and we're
in wave 4 now, with wave 5 yet to come. Wave 3 in this scenario is 1.618
bigger than wave 1 (S&P500, and the perfect fit)
Whether this wave 4 that started 8/7 is wave 4 of a move from April, or it is
wave 4 of an impulse move from 7/96, I don't think it is possible to even
consider it as being over yet.
I know in the short term I passed on to several participants, a graph
charting out an impulse move up from 8/18 - 8/19, but with the large
retracement of this wave at the low on 8/22, I'm also inclined to think it
was probably corrective, and that rise 8/18 to 8/19 is the first part of wave
B. Wave A was 8/7 to 8/18. The amount of retracement of A will be very
interesting. If we stall out at the 8/19 high, wave C will take us down
quite a bit. My feeling however is that this B will actually take us back to
the old highs, perhaps beyond, setting us up for a weak C, that will never
get back to the 8/18 low.
Either way in the very very short term, I think we're going up. That means
we should be higher in two days, than we are right now.
If the drop from the high on 8/19 to the low on 8/22 is a five wave move, it
is possible it is a C wave that has finished the correction from 8/7. I have
my doubts because of the short time frame as compared to wave A, but best to
be wary of the possibility. If this is the case, then the rise late Friday
could be wave 1 of the final 5 of the move up from April. Today (8/25)
finished that wave 1, and started wave 2. Wave 3 would take us, at an
absolute minimum, 8100 on the Dow (1.618 times wave 1).
Another "up" scenario anyway. Higher in two days? We'll see.
Peter
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