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Reflection on Dec 97 Corn
and what it may do later...
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8/21/97 5:21pm Pacific
Greetings Fellow Traders!
Before I go into the future, a quick look at the recent past.
Sent last weekend on the Fdate Report for this Wednesday, 8/20 was the
following paragraph:
QUOTE:
WEDNESDAY (8/20)
========================
Dec Corn - Bias UP. Cycle dates 8/22, 28. Look to go LONG as long as the
previous pivot bottom is in place which is currently at 248.50.
Retracement support levels are 261.25 then 258.50. If this Fdate is to
be the bottom, I prefer the 258.50 considering this market already
closed at 262.50. Wait and see.
END QUOTE:
On 8/18, two days before our Fdate, the market hit support at 260.50.
You can see this from the Fib Formation calc attached below for L3. I
was expecting 258.50 since my original calc was for 8/20. But by hitting
this price support on the bottom and moving up, we had to wait and see
what 8/20 was going to get us. A high?
Using the new bottom of 8/18 and the previous top, I set for to find
price for when our 8/20 Fdate arrived. Note below beside Fib 38.2% (ref.
from low price) we have 265.65.
On our Fdate 8/20, a lower low than the previous day making a NEW low
was marked at PRICE of 265.50!
Now, it made both a new high AND low. Why would I then be looking for a
bottom? Because if you note the paragraph I published above, the bias is
UP. According to the rules (available at website), can only look for a
long in this situation.
An aggressive trader may have BRACKETED this day (of course at their own
risk) knowing that this day is a turn day (Fdate).
OKAY, THE PAST HAS BEEN EXPOSED AND SET-UP, NOW THE FUTURE...
---------------------------------------------------------------
Now that the market has done its move, what now? Notice that I offer 2
cycle days in the Report quote above. 8/22 is Friday (tomorrow) and then
8/28 is next Thursday.
Now, cycle days are not as accurate as Fdates, yet they offer a close
approximation of what to expect. It appears to me at this moment that we
should at least be expecting Dec Corn to make a pivot top tomorrow,
followed by a retracement down for a couple of days or so.
Again, calculating approximate top price (calc not included), I get the
280-281.50 area as a short term top.
Should you short there? NO WAY! Again, I emphasize that the market bias
has been calculated as UP. Therefore, prepare for a retracement back
down preferably around 8/28 (our cycle day) and make sure it hits PRICE
as well.
Once the top is in, use that high with the last low 265.50 to estimate
price to enter LONG in the direction of the bias.
cheers!
:)
rick
PS: BIAS by the way is not necessarily the obvious trend (though it
truly defines the actual short term trend). It is calculated by a
proprietary technique (not mine, but I'm under a non-disclosure, sorry)
that provides an excellent idea of where the underlying momentum
currently lies. Short term traders are advised to always trade in the
direction of the current bias UNTIL it changes. That change is the only
time you will be expecting to go one way, and it goes the other. Knowing
the time day helps in this regard when to be in or not.
--
**** http://FSoftPublishing.com ****
Market Of The Week Forecast
http://FSoftPublishing.com/forecast/forecast.htm
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