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bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>
> Finding The Butterflys
>
> No claim to genius status from this corner. Just want to add some
> confirmation of the simple logic rule of not making things too complex. A
> few years back when in residence at one of the country's prestigeous
> universities, my now X wife was researching the migration path of the
> Monarch butterflies. Her research was based on capturing them at their
> overwintering sites on the California coast and then analyzing their body
> parts using thinlayer chromatography. She was looking for cardiac
> glycocides that are sequestered when the butterfly larva feed on milkweed
> plants. These identifying markers stay with the larva through the
> transformaiton into what we see flying amongst the flowers in an apparant
> random path. In reality these flapping things have a migratory path they
> have been following prior to man getting into their path. The butterflies
> that pass through Florida and Texas, having flown from Canada, disappear
> over the gulf of Mexico. Botanically milkweed plants are geographic
> specific and by combining information from the botany department with the
> sacrificing of thousands of butterflies a migratory path is mapped. For
> decades a professor in Canada was using a tagging approach and traced the
> path between Canada and the southern border of the US. My wife in
> conjunction with a professor from Amherst preferred the chemical dissection
> route. From my perspective as a nuclear physics researcher there seemed to
> be a more logical approach to finding out where the butterflies spent the
> winter than years of tagging and chemical research. These folks even went
> so far as to use satellite photos to select the ideal overwintering sites.
> My simple suggestion to them was to take a VW bus to Mexico and ask the
> locals where the butterflies hangout during the winter. The story ends
> when my wife's party arrives in a VW bus at the camp of the Canadians in
> the mountains above Mexico city a week after the Canadians had arrived.
>
> BobR
>
> At 04:14 PM 8/19/97 -0700, nwinski wrote:
> >Walt Downs wrote:
> >>
> >> Dear Mr. Murray,
> >>
> >> Up until now, I have remained on the sidelines, watching your posts
> >> with interest, and some dissapointment.
> >>
> >> I am responding now in order to balance the scales a bit, and make
> >> sure that newer traders understand the situation, and are able to
> >> accept both the pros and CONS of your methodolgy.
> >>
> >> Mr. Murray, you seem to be a person of some intelligence. I found it
> >> sad that a person of "rare intellect" , should state that any trader who
> >> failed to follow his methodolgy was "ignorant".
> >>
> >> The dictionary defines ignorance as:
> >>
> >> 1. Lacking knowledge : Uneducated. 2. : resulting from or showing
> >> lack of knowledge or intelligence.
> >>
> >> I have talked with almost everyone on RT at one time or another.
> >> >From these conversations, I might assert many things about my
> >> fellow traders, but "ignorance" certainly wouldn't be one of them.
> >>
> >> There are two possible interpretations of your assertions:
> >>
> >> 1. You are simply using the term "ignorance" to mean uneducated in
> >> your methodology. This argument is valid.
> >>
> >> 2. You are using the term "ignorance" as an emotional club to
> >> assert that anyone who is not educated in your methodology is
> >> using up valuable oxygen that a more intelligent life form
> >> could be using to greater benefit.
> >>
> >> If you are versed in the
> >> basics of rudimentary logic Mr. Murray, you will note that
> >> this form of argument is refered to as "Ad Bacculum". This
> >> means that you respond to well thought out questions and
> >> arguments with : "Your Mother wears army boots!! " This
> >> type of argument is not valid.
> >>
> >> Sadly, from the tone of your posts, I fear your usage is the later
> >> and not the former.
> >>
> >> Your last post was a wondrous display of esoteric "facts" that
> >> beguiled the mind, and addled the senses. I found it amusing to
> >> note that one who claims to be such a lover of harmonics would
> >> present such a cacophony of verbage.
> >>
> >> You ARE amazing Mr. Murray, but I think I understand the difference
> >> between a prophet and a magician.
> >>
> >> Your assertion that traders are too unintelligent to use 8TH grade
> >> math, might also lead to the logical assertion that YOU are
> >> incabable of using anything else.
> >>
> >> But let me put my personal views aside and approach this coldly and
> >> logically.
> >>
> >> I have an IQ of 185. Under standard psychological testing procedures
> >> currently accepted the "genius" level is 160.
> >>
> >> Therefore, under the likely possibility that you were addressing me
> >> under the second argumentative form stated above, your arguments are
> >> unfounded, fallacious and inconsistent.
> >>
> >> Therefore, I am adequately qualified to state a few arguments of my
> >> own. I have reviewed your work, and your statements regarding trading,
> >> and it is my assertion that your statements are insupportable, and
> >> untradable. So many points of entry and egress are called in your
> >> methodology, that a trader would be at a loss in picking the ONE
> >> right turning point.
> >>
> >> These are my arguments and assertions. Disproving them should be easy
> >> for you. Simply provide a "realtime" trading record of your profitable
> >> transactions, and I will gladly recant.
> >>
> >> Until such a time, I will quietly go my own trading way, but everytime
> >> you post such claims and assertions as you have been making, in
> >> the interest of making sure that new traders understand both sides
> >> of the coin, I will , quietly and with much regret, re-post this
> >> message.
> >>
> >> I look forward to your response, and the "enlightenment" I am sure to
> >> experience. Until then I shall approach you with the method I have
> >> found most practical in dealing with these types of situations:
> >>
> >> .......... silence
> >>
> >> Walt Downs
> >> CIS Trading
> >
> >Walt,
> > Mr. Murry and you are both way over my head with his genius and your
> >185 IQ. I barely scraped thru 8th grade math and probably flunked that
> >IQ test. Interestingly, it is my understanding that Albert Einstein
> >flunked 8th grade math. But there is a funny correlation that I have
> >observed that pulls all of this together. When I was a market maker on
> >the CBOE, I traded at a post which was near the exits (smart huh?). So,
> >any new traders that came on the floor tended to stop by and browse at
> >our post first. If I wasn't busy I would talk to them and try to get to
> >know them. I noticed after awhile that the more degrees and education
> >they had the worse they were at trading. This became very profitable for
> >me, as I would know that any guy with a couple of masters degrees and a
> >PhD. was a real good pidgeon for me to take the other side of his
> >trades. These are the guys I would invite and encourage to join our
> >trading crowd
> >at our post. So, while these guys were boosting my trading profits,
> >I also got a free education from talking with them...kind of an earn
> >while I learn program. In contrast, the most successful and wealthiest
> >traders at the CBOE and the CBOT were lucky if they got thru highschool.
> >Many of these top trades were former cab drivers and newspapers stand
> >people. So why did the overeducated ones do so poorly? I noticed that
> >they tended to overanalyze everything. The market would start to move
> >and they would stand there frozen asking "why?", until the pain
> >got so great they had to go with it and then they would paniced just
> >like
> >the so called "uninformed" investment public. It was at this moment
> >that "stupid me" would take pity on these geniuses and help them
> >get out of their losing positions. It is the least I could do for
> >them having shared their advanced knowledge with me that I otherwise
> >could never access due to my low grades and low intelligence.
> > Please don't misunderstand me. I am a big advocate of education and
> >learning. But, I am not so sure that this path is one that is helpful
> >in the markets. Perhaps being a genius would help? But, what is a
> >genius?
> >Is it scoring high on a test? I think all would agree that Albert
> >Einstei
> >was a genius. Albert flunked 8th grade math. He said the key to his
> >genius was that he never grew up, that he was still a child at heart.
> >PhDs, like the above traders on the CBOE, are good at knowing alot
> >about a little and can extrapolate on minutia ad infinitum. In contrast,
> >Albert Einstein took a profound concept, relativity, and made it simple.
> >Albert even wrote a simple example of riding on a train that I could use
> >to explain to my 5 year old son in about one minute, so that he would
> >understand relativity. This reminds me of an anecdote about my Uncle
> >Abe, when he was Director of NASA's Lewis Research Center.
> ><http://sulu.lerc.nasa.gov/history/abe.html> This was back in
> >the 50s when they were trying to perfect the liquid hydrogen rocket
> >engine which was later used in the Saturn V to get to the Moon. One
> >of Abe's engineers had been working day and night trying to solve a
> >problem with the liquid hydrogen engine. He had formulaes and blueprints
> >streched out over yards of desk space. After several days of this guy
> >racking his brain, Abe strolled by and ask what he was doing and what
> >seemed to be the problem? Abe studied the blueprint for about a minute
> >and said, why don't you just move this over there and connect the two?
> >They built it just the way Abe suggested and it worked. Again,
> >simplicity
> >wins out over the complexity of "high intelligence".
> > Earlier, I told you that my son, when he was 4 1/2 showed he could
> >pick out winning trades with the best in the business. I don't know if
> >he did this totally based on his inherent talent or what he learned in
> >pre-school, but I doubt he would score anywhere near genius on one of
> >those tests. He is a normal kid, hasn't written his first symphony yet
> >or been accepted to Harvard.
> > I am not so sure there is a conclusion to draw from all of this, as
> >much as a question as to what "genius" and high IQ really mean and
> >whether this type of mentality is an asset or a liability in trading. I
> >do know that the utlimate "IQ test" in trading the markets is one's
> >track record and the resulting REAL TIME REAL MONEY profits or losses.
> >Those
> >who publicly lay claim to being geniuses on a trading forum should be
> >willing support this by having their indepenently monitored real time
> >track records made readily available to all interested parties.
> >
> >Simply,
> >
> >Norman
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >My 5 year old son proved that he could trade futures with the best
> >in the business.
> >
> >
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ..............
GET ME OFF THIS LIST.
BILL VEDDER
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