|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
BOB PEISNER'S
DAILY MARKET OPINION:
The Intermediate Term Uptrend continues to be alive and well. AAMES alerted
all subscribers to the start of this Intermediate Term Uptrend on 4/29/97 at
DJIA 6962.
Yesterday, AAMES wrote, ".... The Short Term Trend, which is still UP, but
just barely, was severely weakened by today's (Thursday's) selling pressure.
A strong down day tomorrow (Friday) would flip the Short Term indicators to
DOWN ...." It came to be.
The Short Term Trend is now DOWN, as of 8/8/97 at DJIA 8031.
The DJIA close of 7890 on 7/18/97 is important since the Short Term Trend is
now DOWN. A close under DJIA 7890 changes the direction of the Intermediate
Term Uptrend to either DOWN or SIDEWAYS.
The strike talks between UPS and the Teamsters have broken down. UPS
management states they are preparing for an extended strike, which is
negative news for the economy, estimated '97 EPS and for stock prices.
In the next week or two, Pres. Clinton will probably be forced to step in,
due to prodding from Congress.
The vast majority of stocks in (10b) continue to be protected by sell-stops
at either break-even or at a profit. This market run was a good run.
COMMENT ON CORRECTIONS: Market corrections are a way of life. This data is
from Ralph Acampora, the Senior Market Analyst for Prudential Securities.
Per Ralph, looking back into stock market history, the 1962/1966 bull market
had eight corrections, with each correction averaging a loss of -5.5% over
an average four-week period.
The current bull market, which began around Nov'94 (per Ralph), has, so far,
gone through eleven (11) corrections, from Nov'94 to Aug'97. The average
correction has lasted twelve (12) days, with an average loss of about -6.2%
per correction. The largest correction was the -11.8% decline in
March/April'97, which lasted 24 days. The 2nd largest correction was the
-11.2% decline of May/July'96, which lasted 40 days.
The recent market high was DJIA 8259 on 8/6/97. A -6.2% correction would
take the DJIA down to around 7746. An -11.8% correction would take the DJIA
down to around 7284.
***************************************
>>>(3) >>>SHORT TERM TREND:
AAMES' short term indicators see the SHORT TERM TREND as DOWN (3 to 7 days
ahead), being downgraded to DOWN on 8/8/97 at DJIA 8031. FIVE indicators are
NEGATIVE.
On the NEGATIVE side:
The NEW HIGH/LOW indicator is now in a DOWNTREND.
The daily ADVANCED/DECLINE line is now in a DOWNTREND.
The MOMENTUM of the 2,500+ stocks in AAMES' database is now in a DOWNTREND.
PERCENT ABOVE dropped to 54%, down from yesterday's 68%. Yesterday, AAMES
wrote, ".... PERCENT ABOVE goes negative if it drops to 65% or lower ...."
It came to be.
The 30-YEAR T-BOND YIELD jumped to 6.63%, from yesterday's 6.51%. The daily
charts of yields show yields rising, and bond prices declining, which is
negative for stocks.
On the POSITIVE side:
Nothing;
JW
abprosys@xxxxxxx
|