|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
The long awaited Fdate for 8/5 (since last June) failed in accordance
with Fdate rules.
Must be followed by at least a couple days of not exceeding the Fdate
extreme price, whether bottom or top.
TBonds downward move was halted at the Fdate (8/5) and we ended up with
a move back up to the 115 area following. However, the very same day it
made the upward move, it made a lower low as well. Time day invalid by
its own rules.
One nice thing is that the mailing I posted for all, on how to trade a
time day, showed the best strategies in taking advantage of situations
like this. In other words, you can profit whether it held for 5 days or
just one.
The article makes this point in trading time days.
1) There is always the possibility that what you THINK is a time day
could actually be one day late. This can be unnerving. To put it in your
favor, you always look for the next day to be a possible one day late
time day if it appears to be turning.
EXAMPLE: You make a new bottom on a time day. The next day, it makes a
higher high and 'appears' to be validating your time day. However, it
instead had moved up on that time day + 1 and hit resistance, causing
the market to go back down the following day (2 days after the time day)
and break below the time day low.
Here, we have a failed time day. Yet, the strategy is quite clear.
Using the example, if the market appears to be validating a time day by
making a higher low and moving up, prepare for the possibility that
resistance may be hit sooner than expected. This is for markets when the
turn is AGAINST the trend ONLY. If you happen to be in a down trending
market, you should only be looking to short anyway. So, to prepare,
place your entry BELOW the time day bottom. Experience has shown that if
you break a time day low, you are going down, down, down WITH the
current 'micro' trend.
I did this with the Yen a couple weeks back. I had an Fdate that
'appeared' as a perfect on the nose bottom. The market was clearly
trending down, so I didn't care to go long. Yet, I knew I could use this
time day to go short. So, I waited for a rally top to short. The market
never climbed high enough nor did I have another Fdate to short it at
the small top it made, so I placed my order BELOW the FDate bottom
waiting for it to be broken. It took all week to take out the Fdate
bottom, but once it did, I knew a ride was in progress. Look at the last
two weeks to see what I mean.
The Yen's Fdate did not fail, held all week. However, the same technique
worked since the rally itself was real weak. The Bonds 8/5 Fdate DID
fail in my opinion, yet the market was topping and appeared to be
getting weak by the basis of the 'micro' trend as described in my recent
article on "Which Way Did It Go..George?". It would have been a good
time to place a short below the FDate low.
Unfortunately, I did not do this. As well, I ignored the 115 high as
resistance and also put a lot of stock in the 8/11 Fdate I'm expecting
to be a HIGH because of a cycle date, not the Fdate. This at times can
get one in trouble.
Let me explain.
We are 'expecting' a CYCLE HIGH one day after a FDATE. If the market
comes tumbling down as it did today, then retraced only 33% of this move
down to make a rally top on 8/11,12, then plumetted again, is this a
top?
Yes, it is. Yet, it is lower than the bottom we had the week before.
We need to be careful when expecting tops and bottoms in thinking a top
next week will be higher than a bottom this week. I get into that rut
myself, trying to 'guess'. Dangerous.
In conclusion, it appears many markets are making great lows today. It
is probably the bottoms for a few days. So, we may make a top on 8/11,12
as expected, but I doubt it will come all the way back up from 112 to
pass 115.
2 Scenarios. 8/11 actually marks an even lower low, with the cycle high
a fluuuf, or the cycle high may be marking the following couple of days
afterwards. Cycles are rarely pinpoint accurate as Fdates.
I leave that speculation to you all who trade the Bonds. Just remember,
there is a FDate for 8/11. Something 'wonderful' is happening. :)
Goodnite Dave...
rick
--
*************************************************
http://FSoftPublishing.com
*************************************************
|