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MKT:- Re: Lower Channel



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PJ
 nice call it confirms a little of my "quick dirty" look at the indu 10 min
chart. It made a Head & Sholders top over the last 2 days
 Doing the "math" from top to neck line the projection is down to the 
7800 level.

al 

At 10:40 AM 8/8/97 -0400, you wrote:
>Well, the Dow in fact did stall at the upper channel line, and this morning,
>8/8, continued the retest of the lower channel line at the 8080 range.
>
>We seem to be holding so far, but no guarantees. Initial targets IF/AFTER a
>break of the lower line are about 7990 (1.618 projection of the downthrust of
>last Thursday and Friday, 7/31 & 8/1).  7990 also happens to be a 50%
>retracement of the entire up move from 7/1. A further target down there is
>7820, that's a 2.618 projection.
>
>I think this is all very healthy, as long as we don't go past that 7820 mark.
> The whole move since this initial impulse "up thrust", 7/1 to 7/3, is
>corrective.  As detailed in recent Elliott post, I think we need to end this
>move before continuing the march upward.  It is starting to look like the
>move that started last Thursday 7/31, may be this "ending" move.
>
>Will be interesting to see if we get enough "price and time" to constitute an
>ending move.  So far we have established two nice tops to draw a trendline
>across, those being the Dow highs of 7/31 and 8/7.  The slow recovery at the
>beginning of this week did retrace an enormous amount of the distance lost on
>that downmove on the Dow, so from an Elliott view I don't think that slow
>recovery was a wave 2. Theoretically possible because there was not a 100%
>retracement, but highly unlikely.  A sideways triangle is probably more
>likely, but this is just speculation.  That new upper trendline is the key,
>as will be the upper trendline of this "yet to form, suspected" triangle. 
>
>PJL 
>
>
>