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Too add some amplification to John's view take a look at this NYSE chart
with advances, declines and an advance decline. Sure ended Wednesday on a
nice note. What is not seen is the futures went into sell program
territory by some measures after the cash closed. Also take note of the
divergence between the bottom plot of the advance decline line(ten minutes)
and the NYSE. Of course divergences can go until the last believer in them
is out of action, but when they occur they can't be ignored. Watch for the
first morning when the advances are not running as fast as the previous
days after a sequence of them and then look for breakdown in price.
BobR
At 12:37 AM 8/7/97 -0400, G.John Boggio wrote:
>Realtraders,
>
>On 8/6/97 Bob wrote:
>So far so good on the VIX front. The numbers continue to play out as
>expected. The VIX and its derivative the VIX Zone score continue to drop
>and the five day AMOS timing component broke out of its triangle to the
>upside. Now if technical history repeats, the market is on the verge of
>generating a sell signal.
>
>Observation: As many of you probably know, the recent rally in the market
>has been lead by many of the large cap Tech stocks on both the NYSE and
>NASDAQ. Fortunately, I own a few of them. (dell, intc, msft, mu, atml,
>asnd, nscp, mot and a bunch of non-tech stocks). Anyhow, as you saw, the
>Dow rallied +70 points for the day and closed near it high. However, many
>of the stocks that I own and follow, DID NOT close near their highs, and
>some were several points off their high. Usually, this type of occurrence
>often indicates that the buyers are fading.
>
>Here are some examples: (layout will be; SYMBOL, High and then the Close)
>
>Dell 84.625, 82.75
>Intc 102, 101.125
>Msft 144.625, 143.50
>Mu 59.25, 57.375
>Nscp 41.125, 39.875
>
> You will see in the examples above that most of these 'leading' stocks
>gave back most of their gain for the day. In lieu of some of the other
>messages sent to this forum tonight suggesting possible exhaustion, I
>thought I would include my two cents. If I am correct, I will be moving my
>trailing stops closer in order to lock in profits.
>
>Sincerely,
>John Boggio
>
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