|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
So far so good on the VIX front. The numbers continue to play out as
expected. The VIX and its derivative the VIX Zone score continue to drop
and the five day AMOS timing component broke out of its triangle to the
upside. Now if technical history repeats, the market is on the verge of
generating a sell signal. The VIX Z score will pivot intraday for day
traders and end of day types will see the Average VIX and Closing VIX
higher than the previous day on the official sell day. At the best this is
a coincident indicator. It is leading only in the sense that its trend and
zone location provide a clue to the OEX direction. On the Modified
Volatility Index we have a clearer picture than has been presented in
previous days. The MVI is now tagging its +1.618 std dev band. It is fair
to say that the market is on a sell alert. It could go to +2 std dev in a
stronger market. Recently the 1.618 has been the resistance band, but if
it is breached we will look for a reversal on the way to +2. The sell
signal will be when it crosses and or drops away from this band.
Simulataneously the VIX should rise from its -2 std dev band. When
indicators approach buy or sell signals the attention should go to price,
because that is what is traded. MVI.gif follows.
BobR
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\AMOS 8-6-97.gif"
|