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Warren Goldstein wrote:
>
> Hi RTers,
> Rick,
> I'm not sure about those F-dates of yours. My Delta indicator projected a
> top in beans this week, and the next major low in late September. I believe
> that this recent rally was wave 4 in a bear market, breaking up into 3
> waves. Personally, I'm short November beans from 654, looking for 538 in
> late September. The seasonal tendency is solidly on my side as well.
> Anyway, we'll see how it goes.
> Good Trading,
> Warren
Ah Mr. Goldstein, sir. The thing about the market when forecasting is
whether one is dealing with the week in micro fashion, or the year at a
glance.
Such confusion arises when a long term trader comes across a short term
traders forecast. Little do both know is that they may both be right or
wrong.
Seasonally beans may go up or down, depends on whether the market is
bullish or bearish. Look upon the seasonal chart of any credibility and
you will find where the influences of the market, whether bullish or
bearish, can alter that which is a normal directional tendency. Long
term, may still go down and probably will. But in the short term, there
will be lots of tops and bottom along the way in which to forecast and
trade off of.
In point, yes, maybe you are not familiar with the Fdates. You are not
alone. Yet they have been remarkable in signaling the turns in the
market. They've practically forecasted every top and bottom the last few
months, several of which I've posted ahead of time. Already this last 7
days, we've seen one of those tops that had a major drop following. Now
we have a bottom brewing here.
I say..we have a bottom brewing here. That means what will come next is
a top.
Now, that doesn't mean come September, we won't come down again and
possibly even hit your price of 538 for the November contract. No,
indeed. Can do that just as well as hit any other price. As a matter of
fact, as we near September, I'll look real closely at the prices in
reference to a coming Fdate to discern price squaring.
So, in closing, your forecast can be correct while possibly mine as
well. One being short term, one being a little longer out. Just depends
on how close we put our noses to the charts. I'm still trying to peal
the Live Cattle chart from my chin. :)
cheers!
:)
rick
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