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PJLaird@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> Evening All,
>
> Attached, for those interested, is a continuation of the very short term
> accordion, on a ten minute graph of the Dow, with times to close out the
> week.
>
> The times for the 28th and 29th were less than productive, and the tepid
> market action was controlled by the upper and lower trendlines. The
> trendlines have been adjusted ever so slightly, to encompass all the market
> activity. This has little effect on the originals, and their worth, as it is
> only a violent crossing of trendlines that deserves any attention anyway, in
> my view.
>
> The 1.618 projection for 12:10 tomorrow (give or take 10 minutes), is pretty
> much the last short term possibility I'm entertaining for the daily data
> "date" I had for earlier this week. My next "daily" occurs this weekend, to
> be played out at the beginning of next week.
>
> I'll go with a strong break in either direction, but my gut is with the
> downside here, as action narrows within those trendlines. I was tempted to
> put an Elliott count on the graph, but it's not as clear as I'd like it. I
> think it is safe to say though, the action since the 7/24 low is corrective,
> and not impulsive. I know we've been rising, but all the small lower
> trendlines, drawn from low to subsequent low, have been taken out, as the
> market fails to accelerate to the upside, and remain above these short term
> lower trendlines. This is classic corrective action in my view. It's a
> bullish correction, in that when complete, the ensuing impulse move will be
> quite explosive, but I tend to think we need something to the downside to
> finish off this correction. Doesn't have to be enormous, maybe 200 - 300 Dow
> points over a couple of days.
>
> Maybe tomorrow.
>
> Peter
>
> PS Trading rule # 1. Follow your rules, not your gut.
>
> ---------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Name: DOW2.GIF
> Part 1.2 Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> Encoding: base64
OK, Right Oh.
Try to add a 5th wave triangle of five waves that overlap. This is the
only impulsive formation that allows for overlapping waves. You are
correct that overlapping waves 'generally' denote corrective action.
On a ten minute chart this is clear. On the daily it is also a 5th of a
fifth triangle.
OEX count, the above mentioned larger fifth wave daily triangle total
price change is the same as the previous 3rd wave, 1 to 1. The current
924.00 OEX resistance line is significant therefore. To exceed that
will upset my count. The 3rd wave must not be the shortest and the
1 to 1 is testing that count now. A stop at 925 would be fairly tight
risk for a short entry now.
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