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Folks,
Years ago (in the HP9820 - prior to the AppleII world) we did not have
much in the way of analytic programs that considered swings and fourier
analysis. I wrote a system for the HP9820 and made
a living for a while off of it. Then I moved it to the AppleII and
bought my present company and did
not have time for anything but "hobby" of this.
Later I moved it to DOS. What is presented today is from that system --
the system is typical of
a programmer gone mad and is NOT available for any reason -- not because
of secrets, just because
I don't have time to answer all the questions that would arise AND there
are a lot of good commercial
programs available now.
I have attached TWO .gif files.
djilogsw.gif is the picture of the Natural Logarithm of prices for the
DJI. Data from 1940 was used.
(I'll redo this if someone can send me a longer set of data but I only
have from 1940) and that data
was analyzed for M and W patterns over that period. Each pattern is
assigned a unique id from
zero (0) to nine(9) 5M and 5W patterns. Currently a 4 pattern has
ended. This 4 pattern followed a
9 pattern (0-5 = bottoms, 6-9=tops). The program looks back through
history for this combination
of patterns and gets the length and magnitude of the next leg AS A
PERCENTAGE OF PRICE and
averages these. The results are on this .gif -- projected green lines
are those swings that were found
and the projected red line is the AVERAGE of all these adjusted to
todays price.
If this approach is correct then we should have 3 to 4 more months to a
top. Don't bet the farm on it.
djulogfo.gif is from the Fourier analysis portion of the program.
The tabulation gives a list of the period (in months) the delay
(relative to first point) of the first peak of the determined cosine
wave and the magnitude of the wave. A smooth blue line is plotted.
This blue line is
the projection of where the price of the DJI will go if the waves
evaluated remain as they are. This evaluation says the peak is apon us
and we are on a downhill ride. Don't forget these are LOG values of
price so what it says is a MONSTER of a pullback.
Again, if anyone has longer term series i'll be happy to repeat this on
that series.
Clyde Lee
MR Associates Int wrote:
> RTr's
> Michael Jenkins of Stock Cycles mentioned on the radio that
> the end of
> July was
> shaping up to be a "big bear" time period because of the confluence of
>
> several major
> cycles: 10 year, 60 year (and others...I missed them)
>
> I recall a discussion on RTs about major cycles several months
> ago that
> were
> converging in 1997 - anyone have the latest list?
>
> Mike R
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