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In a message dated 97-07-16 08:48:02 EDT, cmcmurry@xxxxxxxxxxx (Christopher
McMurry) writes:
> Obviously, this issue is a key one in trying to determine where the heck
> we are in a long-term Elliott framework.
>
> What do the Elliott experts on RealTraders think? :)
>
> Chris
Briefly, Prechter's view is that the time is irrelevant, that it is the price
level that matters. To Prechter, the "where" is also an issue of price. He
has for a few years now said that in terms of price, we are at or are nearing
the top of a Grand Supercycle, one that will correct the trend since the
1720s. He says that one of the reasons he has turned bearish "early" is that
"early" is an adverb of time, not distance (price), and that in terms of
distance we are there now. Thus, to Prechter, the great bear trend can start
at any time, or it can be delayed further, but it will start because we have
reached the price levels at which it is inevitable. He does vascillate in
terms of what he thinks of how long the correction will take, and how long it
will last. He says his vascillation is because EW theory does not talk about
time, so Prechter relies on other inputs, such as social trends (which he
believes govern all price action, not the other way around) and past behavior
at important EW turns. His current thinking is along the lines of "we will
probably have a turn on a dime, and it will be in 3 waves down, the last of
which will occur in the middle of the first decade of the 21st century." He
uses the C-word ("crash") for the "turn on a dime" increasingly. He sees two
crashes. One starts in 1996 (so, he's late), and it's really bad. No one
expects is. (That's part of the reason it will happen.) Then there is a
wave-2 rally, whew, everybody gets back in. Then the big one, which he says
will be like 1932, and it will devastate the remaining longs. Etc. I happen
to like the guy. His best book, in my opinion, is an overlooked $19.95 job
called "Prechter's Perspective," written in early 1996 and really fun and
interesting to read. It lays out his views on society, both before and after
the crest. A more fundamental treatment of what he sees coming, and of EW
theory in general, is best read in his "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave." He
also talks about the middle of the next century, stuff only your grandkids
will be able to validate (and you will pray that Prechter is wrong). You can
get these from his company, phone 770-536-0309. Modest guy, Bob; lives in a
nice house up in Gainesville, Ga., about an hour from Atlanta, on Lake
Lanier. He says he is ready for the crash.
Good luck.
Larry
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