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LHonigAtl@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> In a message dated 97-07-12 18:39:53 EDT, knox1@xxxxxxx (James Knox) writes:
>
> > It looked like a down hill race ... now things are somewhat interesting.
> > Does anyone see Dec Corn still hitting prices of $2.00 - $1.90.
> > The USDA report on July 11th estimated this year's crop down from its
> > June estimate. Even so, the crop is still estimated at 400 million
> > bushels bigger than last year. So while the estimate is down - the
> > overall net is still up. Given the rainfall that is hitting the crop
> > this weekend, you would think that prices would decline further on
> > Monday. I still see the market as bearish, even though signals are
> > alerting the upside. Any thoughts would be appreciated
> >
> As I've said before to RT, I personally expect to see Dec.Corn at the 210-220
> level, maybe by Thanksgiving. The levels you are describing, below 200, do
> seem a long shot (no pun intended), but of course in a "fear-and-greed"
> market excesses are to be expected. There is a March Corn contract, too, and
> perhaps it will be the one to make new lows, in the New Year's Day period.
> Personally, I think lows below 200 are 18 months away.
>
> I also am on record with RT that the USDA will be proven wrong. Hmmm ...
> looks bad for that prediction now, I realize. But many farmers plant Corn
> after harvesting Beans, and I think we'll have some of that, and I think we
> are having some replanting (after July Corn is harvested), and I think really
> (as I said over a month ago) that the USDA is simply wrong. I still see the
> crop significantly greater than 400 over last year (greater planted acres and
> greater yields), and I see the exports way down from last year by a similar
> amount, so the USDA and I are over a billion bushels apart.
>
> In terms of near-term price action, if I am correct (and even if your more
> bearish scenario is correct, also), Corn has gone down too far too fast since
> last Spring. The rate of collapse cannot continue - that's a mathematical
> statement, not a market prediction. The market prediction, thus, is that we
> will have a bounce. We could be in the midst of one now, or we could get
> another one (the "weather scare" we will get, or, as Dan Ackroyd said,
> imitating Bob Dole, "I know it, you know it, and the American people know
> it.") Great question about this weekend. Hard to tell. Your point is that
> the rains look good, etc. Yep. But if it stays hot, over 90 degrees, in
> Chicago, those locals are going to be talking up reduced yields and the Corn
> and Bean contracts will go up. It's very hot west of Chicago now, too, and
> what will really do it is some red map areas on CNN over Ohio and Indiana. It
> may not be for a couple of weeks, but I still see a bounce of some kind. How
> big? Beats me. In Corn, I'm too scared to play the long side. I see a
> bounce as a way to afford more long puts. (In Beans, a bounce could take us
> off the trampoline. Different story!)
>
> Good luck.
>
> Larry
FWN reported that rain this coming week has already been factored into
prices, so IF IT DOESN'T RAIN then we'll get a bounce...but what about
weather damage in severe thunderstorms, how about that? There are so
many scenarios that you can go nuts. I try not to let the day-to-day
pit action detract from my longer term views. It seems that the USDA
yield estimates are too high. I like what you say, Larry, about an even
bigger crop than estimated...this is a distinct possibility. I look for
2.00 prices in the midst of harvest pressure/time, late Aug to early
Sept...and, as you say, we are due for a bounce before then.
This is like trying to call every post position in a race at each
quarter pole..quite a task. You can read what I have to say in the New
Pacific Commodity Letter No. 5 due out Monday evening...if you haven't
seen it yet, just e-mail me at drmarty@xxxxxxxxxxxx and I'll send you a
gratis copy. dr m.
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