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Mike R,
At the start of every year I do a thing called a "Mass Pressure Chart" on
the Dow and The Bonds. It is a Gann technique that is very long term cycle
work. Last year it showed a low for 13 July and high for 21 November for
the Dow. It was pretty accurate and very useful for my SuperAnnuation
Fund. The Mass Pressure Chart also confirmed the Decennial Cycle for 1995
and 1996. As everyone is aware there is very little point being long term
short in the years 5 & 6 of the decade. The Year 7 is usually the turning
point year.
The Mass Pressure Chart for 1997 shows a pattern of distribution for the
first half of this year with a high due in Mid Febraury (this came in as
forecast). Basically, the strategy it suggested was buying dips until mid
to late July. The pattern then calls for a reasonable bear market into mid
December. NO CRASH THOUGH>>>> Sorry to disapoint you classical technical
analysts, Elliot Wave Catastrophe Heads and perennial bears.
Therefore, I can conclude that either Jenkins uses the same tools as I do
(just kidding, but we may be correlated) or there are very good reasons to
reduce exposure to both US and Australian equities over the next few weeks.
For the past few months Bill McLaren has been calling for a Dow mid July
high (the 17th I think).
Oh, by the way I presented the same analysis as above to the Australian
Technical Analysts Association in January this year. So I am on the record
on this one, so to speak.
Regards
David Hunt
----------
> From: MR Associates Int <mrasoc@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: MKT: Cycles-Long Term
> Date: Sunday, 13 July 1997 5:23
>
> RTr's
> Michael Jenkins of Stock Cycles mentioned on the radio that the end of
> July was
> shaping up to be a "big bear" time period because of the confluence of
> several major
> cycles: 10 year, 60 year (and others...I missed them)
>
> I recall a discussion on RTs about major cycles several months ago that
> were
> converging in 1997 - anyone have the latest list?
>
> Mike R
>
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