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I believe he meant this to go to the RT list instead of my mail box.
:)
rick
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Tue, 8 Jul 1997 13:08:59 -0400 (EDT)
Date: Tue, 8 Jul 1997 13:08:59 -0400 (EDT)
Message-ID: <970708130857_-991059141@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: ricrat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Time? and Price
In a message dated 97-07-08 01:06:13 EDT, you write:
<< Sure 7 turn dates at plus or minus one day would make 21 probabilities.
There is no question about that. But who is going to give 7 time days
for one market in a 20 day time span? Try to be more realistic. 7 time
days in one market usually covers a few months!
And by the way, even if a vendor 'doesn't' say plus or minus one day,
how many times are their time days ACTUALLY a day off? Many times,
whether they say it or not. If one says, October 8th, and it happens
October 9th or 10th, what do you want to bet we all jump up and down and
say what a great forecaster he is? So get real here, some of us are very
open about the fact that hitting the NOSE EVERYTIME is unrealistic due
to factors of holidays and weekends, or someone burped next to the
President. >>
Rick makes some valid points. While I won't get caught up in the gas wars
here, I will say that in the use of Nature's Pulse, we are careful to pay
attention to probability as a function of harmonic confluence. To put it less
jargony, the more significant mathematical relationships that hit on a
certain date, the greater confidence we have that a tradable event will
happen with precision on that date. This allows us to throw out less
attractive dates. Thus, do not end up with a 20 dates in 30 days, but
rather--one or two. That is, of course, for those of us who are very risk
averse.
Eddie Kwong
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