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--- Alex Matulich <alex@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> My own tests, for example, of statistical
> probability bands above
> and below an expected price value do indicate that a
> smoother with
> low lag and no overshoot represents "expected" price
> better than
> anything else, and the indicator bands that result
> would not be
> used as an entry/exit signal, but as a "reversion to
> the mean" bias
> indicator.
>
> There aren't useless tools, only useless appliers of
> those tools.
> Many indicators, smoothers, and other functions we
> have ARE useless
> for the traditional purposes published about them.
> But then someone
> comes along and finds an innovative way to apply
> something in a
> useful way, when it seemed useless before. Woodie's
> forum and CCI
> is one example.
>
I do not know where you learned statistics, but I bet
your low-lag smoother represents the expected price
value far worse than statistically un-biased estimate:
price tomorrow equals price today
can't beat that.
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