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"Volker" <volker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
> Why don't you start by testing a simple standard
> deviation system on a portfolio of futures and use
> simple money management like percent risk stop
I agree. Simple things like standard deviation bands
(a/k/a Bollinger Bands) breakout systems can be
surprisingly powerful.
If you're worried that market selection may be a
dangerous source of "evil curve fitting", you can
sidestep the problem by refusing to perform market
selection. Instead, select ALL markets. Here is
one tiny test of one possible standard deviation
band system, run on a big portfolio that approximates
ALL markets. It's simple yet it makes money.
Other equally simple systems using other equally
simple ideas (things like moving averages, price
channels, etc.) also perform surprisingly well,
when run on very large portfolios with lots of
diversification.
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