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Actually I found it easier to create short term long systems; short term as
in one to twenty days. From the reaction I get here I see that you are not
reading the Active Trader magazine (stock) system lab articles. :) I usually
test the last ten years of 20 stocks and the pattern is always the same, buy
when the market is exaggerating to the downside and buy for the short period
pull back.
Why does it work? Because after a sharp drop some people think the stock is
a bargain. Most of the time they are right but some times not, that’s why I
like to stay in only for a few days even thou staying in for more days could
increase the profit.
But then remember I am testing on a portfolio of symbols, sometimes 100 or
500 at the time and some have a survivor biases. There is so much to
consider when developing and later analyzing the result.
Regards,
Volker Knapp
(www.wealth-lab.com)
-----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
Von: Mark Simms [mailto:mar.ko@xxxxxxxxxxx]
Gesendet: Sunday, October 03, 2004 1:37 AM
An: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
Betreff: FW: % return and trading futures vs. stocks
What you are really saying Voelker is that few quant-types are not
backtesting before 1996.....
as backtesting since that point at least till 2000 would indicate poor, poor
results for short selling.
However, 2000->2002 would show good results.
I guess Warren is showing his "I'm never bearish because the profits are
short-term" stance then.
And this indicates his time frame is DECADES, not years.
-----Original Message-----
From: VK [mailto:volker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, October 02, 2004 5:35 PM
To: mar.ko@xxxxxxxxxxx; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: AW: % return and trading futures vs. stocks
...Because it does not pay of to short stocks, at least when backtesting.
Regards,
Volker Knapp
(www.wealth-lab.com)
-----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
Von: Mark Simms [mailto:mar.ko@xxxxxxxxxxx]
Gesendet: Saturday, October 02, 2004 7:52 PM
An: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
Betreff: FW: % return and trading futures vs. stocks
re: "Hear nowadays he mostly cries that there's nothing left to buy. Now
THAT's a problem."
Well if Warren Buffet is so good then,
why isn't he SELLING SHORT some stocks ?
-----Original Message-----
From: Abhijit Dey [mailto:omegalist@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, October 02, 2004 1:01 AM
To: David Colin
Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: % return and trading futures vs. stocks
David Colin wrote:
>
>>
>> Appreciate yours & Jimmy's comment so far. But I still isn't
>> convinced that 20%+ stock traders are that good. I realize size makes
>> a difference. I would say my arguments stand for accounts under a
>> million.. But this is the matter for discussion anyways.
>
>
>
> Since taking control of Berkshire Hathaway 39 years ago, Warren Buffet
> has delivered compound annual return of 24%. I think *he's* pretty
> good, no?
> (Source: Forbes magazine)
>
> DF
You bet. But he isn't daytrading his billions. According to this,
http://beginne rsinvest.about.comcswarrenbuffettaaawarrenbio_2.htmhe
made 250% non compounded in 5 years, when he was starting out. I am not
too sure about the validity of figures in this web page - but would be
pretty safe to assume he made some killer returns while managing mere
millions. Hear nowadays he mostly cries that there's nothing left to
buy. Now THAT's a problem.
Abhijit
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