|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Justin,
We all reach these cross-roads in life. I myself am getting to this one
also but from exactly the opposite angle.
Your looking to get out/ reduce your exposure, I'm looking to get in
full-time!!
I've also invested a lot of time and sweat in developing some good ST
and LT model's for the last few years as a back-stop to investment
banking to the point now that I have a "robust" model that I'm convinced
(through back-testing, and monte-carlo simulations) that will take me
away from my current 8-7pm job at the Bank. The big decision for me is
do I give away a guaranteed $200k+/Yr job for the next few years before
the job is outsourced to India that I'm extremely bored with, to trade a
model that can make 3+ times that (on paper) but has not been tested in
real-time as it's an intra-day model even after slippage and brokerage
are included? My business plan has been completed and verified, I have
also have the required capital in my account to get everything started.
Designing and trading futures models is all I think about outside work
(after the GF and gym)these days but next February will be crunch time
after my bonus hits..? What do I do? This will be the second time I will
be attempting this but I'm way ahead of where I was in
skill/knowledge/model terms compared to my first attempt in 1999 at
which I was break-even after 6 months? Decision's decision's......
All I can say Justin is weigh the pro's and con's, get good advice BUT
ultimately follow your heart as time is most precious commodity for all
of us? You may want to revisit the Business Plan you alluded to
earlier..there in lies the truth...treat any type of trading as a
business, first and foremost!
Comments also appreciated from the Forum..
Good luck in what ever decision you make.
Regards
Andrew
-----Original Message-----
From: Justin Fanning [mailto:Justin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Friday, October 01, 2004 5:26 AM
To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: futures as a % of overall investment strategy
This is a little OT, in pure relation to Tradestation, but could I tap
the collective knowledge of the group in relation to futures as a % of
an overall investment strategy.
I've been bashing away at futures technical analysis for ~ 10 years
(part time) as 100% of my "investment" strategy. I'm getting to the
point I simply have to accept my time is being poorly spent on an
"investment" where few make money, and my time would be best spent on
something where almost everyone (within reason) makes money, such as
property, bonds etc.
I'm starting to realise most people go bad in futures not because of
losses (within reason) but because they aren't making enough money to
cover their day-to-day living costs (under capitalised business), and
end up gutting the trading account for rent/food etc. Any business
that's starving the cash flow to cover costs, demise is almost
inevitable.
I see the only way forward in trading would be to wrap a business plan
around trading and raise 100k+ (25k for quality data feed, 50k for
living (house, food, kids etc) & 25k to fund an account). But logic
would dictate if I can get 100k together that I can loose without
ramifications, why wouldn't I simply continue doing that activity that
brought in the 100k in the first place!
I use to scorn property, bonds and the like as un-sophisticated
investors, but in hind site, they are guys who little by little have now
accumulated reasonable wealth, while most of the futures crowd is happy
just to break even. I'm reminded a little of the tortes and the hair,
the tortes in this scenario has collected his monthly rent cheques and
is now sitting on large capital gains, while the hare with his live data
feeds, formulas, systems & indicators, has done a lot of running around,
but gone nowhere.
I did some tests the other day, running some long term moving averages
over the S&P500 index will typically net ~ 10k/year, perhaps that's how
I should view futures, as a small lifestyle subsidy, but stop trying to
make a "future" out of it.
I'm obviously not the first to reach this point and was interested in
what paths others have taken. Did you reduce your % futures exposure
(in both time & money terms), explore other markets? options,
currencies, stocks etc.? Or give up the game all together and go into
something else? (in which case you probably wouldn't be on this list :)
)
All input welcomed.
Kind regards,
Justin
The information contained in this transmission may contain privileged and confidential information and is intended only for the use of the person(s) named above. If you are not the intended recipient, any review, dissemination, distribution or duplication of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you received this email in error, please contact the sender immediately by reply e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message. This email is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instruments.
|