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fundamental analysis as applied to the futures market is mostly worthless
imo...nearly all information is factored into price except for price shocks
due to extraordinary news events (9/11, greenspanspeak) and truly
unanticipated news (top secret) from a company, but these are rare events.
most major news or radical fundamental valuations are already leaked into
price because humans love to tell secrets, and as such, it's extremely
difficult for governments and companies to keep stuff secret due to this
quirk of human nature. also canned technical analysis is worthless as well
imo (review mark brown's "x-files" indicator project if you can find it)
since most indicators and the systems based upon them have unacceptable lag
(though lag might be desirable under specific circumstances). zero lag or
leading indicators have merit, as does indicatorless price and volume
analysis (reading the tape). i was curious to which of the above and other
unnamed ones that the author was referring.
Tony
Call me old school but there is only two types of market analysis.
Fundamental analysis based on value or future value and technical
analysis based on everything else such as looking at a chart, moving
averages, trend lines and on and on and on. Every trader I know of
uses one or the other and by what I consider the definition of a
trader they mostly all use, if not all, technical analysis. Trader is
a person that plans to exit where an investor does not necessiaryly
intend to get out when he enters. So if a person even looks at a
chart I call it technical analysis. The post at the bottom of this
email may refer more to technical analysis less than as we consider
T/A to be. If you use six time frames or three indicators or whatever
then you may not consider just looking at a chart and trading it as
technical analysis. I do however. I like nice simple definitions.
--
Best regards,
Jimmy mailto:jhsnowden@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sunday, September 19, 2004, 8:13:28 PM, you wrote:
mgc> well, what do they use?
mgc> Tony
>>The most successful traders I know, by far, are discretionary traders. They
>>don't use T/A though.
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