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> I think your hypothesis is flawed. How do you intend to go about proving a
> negative?
Thank you for your feedback. Is it logically incorrect to have a negative
hypothesis? Perhaps I'm not posing my inquiry and assertions in an
understandable way. On the other hand, I don't really care about proving any
of my theories, I just wanted to assert them and invite commentary for my
own edification and enlightenment. Thank you for pointing out a possible
fallacy. I realize that this topic can be confusing and deceptive. I've
tried to explain the concept of curve-fitting to others and failed on many
occasions.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ron Hudson" <ron@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, February 02, 2004 4:48 PM
> Subject: e-mini day trading systems
>
>
> > I would like to entertain/stimulate a discussion about the
> myths/truths of
> > emini stock index futures day trading systems. I have done a lot of
> research
> > on this subject, and I'm not just trying to bait or badger system ideas
> out
> > of anyone. I am sincerely interested in testing my own theories and
> debating
> > the topic with others who share my interest....so here goes:
> >
> > My 8+ years of research so far on this subject has led me to hypothesize
> the
> > following:
> >
> > 1. There is no proof that anyone has made money consistently
> using a 100%
> > mechanical system to day trade emini stock index futures. This is not
> meant
> > to insult those who claim to be doing so, or to call them liars. I am
> > well-aware that many CLAIM to be making money consistently day-trading a
> > 100% mechanical system on eminis, and I sincerely trust the honesty and
> > integrity of these people. However, I have seen no PROOF that
> anyone does
> it
> > consistently, year-after-year. I don't know or care how it
> would/could be
> > proven, I just want to state my hypothesis that no such proof
> is available
> > to the public. In other words, "the suggestion that one can day
> trade the
> > emini stock index futures with an automated system has not been publicly
> > proven."
> >
> > 2. One of the most "robust" commercially-available 100%
> mechanical systems
> > for day trading the big S&P contract is the R-Mesa program. This
> conclusion
> > is based on my search for the last 8 years of a viable system
> for trading
> > the eminis. I have learned a lot about curve-fitting and "robustness." I
> > understand that most systems are simply fit to past data.
> However, judging
> > by published track records for every commercial S&P system I've
> ever seen,
> > R-Mesa seems to be the only one that has performed consistently since
> 1985.
> >
> > I have asked the developer of R-Mesa (John Ehlers) and others
> about using
> > mechanical systems on the eminis. The consensus seems to be
> that even the
> > best big contract S&P systems will not "work" as well on the eminis, and
> > that maybe NO system can work on the eminis. These ideas have led me to
> the
> > following "master" hypothesis:
> >
> > 3. There is no commercially-available 100% mechanical system for day
> trading
> > the emini futures that can show a "reasonably robust" performance record
> > over the entire life history of the emini futures (works on over the
> > life-of-contract for all 7 emini markets <2-7 years depending on the
> > contract>). If such a system exists, then it is in very high demand and
> > would become well-known to the public very quickly. Therefore, I have
> > concluded it is "reasonable to assume" that no such system has been
> > available since the emini futures began trading.
> >
> > Okay, those are three of the hypotheses I'm working with. I would
> appreciate
> > an opportunity to discuss/debate this topic with
> others....assuming anyone
> > else shares my fascination about this. I have even thought
> about writing a
> > book about this, and I'm hoping that creating a thread here will help me
> > gauge public interest in such a book. Maybe it's old news and I'm just
> slow
> > to realize what everyone else already knows. Maybe I've missed some
> > important information, or maybe I'm missing out on some great
> opportunities
> > to become an emini systems day trader.
> >
> > I'm just another wannabe trader like everyone else. I've never
> made a dime
> > trading futures, and I don't claim to have any secret power to
> help anyone
> > else do so. I'm just a Tradestation "enthusiast" who's fascinated by the
> > mystique and fantasy of day trading the emini futures. I'm currently
> trading
> > a system on the YM, but I feel my expectations are reasonable. I don't
> > "expect" the system to make money, and I've accepted it as at least 50%
> > possible that I willI lose the max drawdown amount ($4000.00) of my
> system.
> >
> > I understand that there might be system-assist brokers or system vendors
> of
> > questionable systems who will attack my ideas aggressively here (as they
> > have on TradestationWorld). I only ask that we keep the
> conversation civil
> > and avoid personal attacks. Attack my hypotheses, attack my
> research, but
> > please don't start the name-calling that sometimes results when anyone
> > proposes the notion that "mechanical systems trading is
> highly-speculative"
> > I am sincerely opened to opposing views, and I promise to debate without
> > resorting to personal attacks.
> >
> >
> > Ron Hudson
> > Tradestation 7 Easylanguage Specialist
> >
>
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