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Hey Ron,
When you sign this email Tradestation 7 Easylanguage Specialist does
that mean that you are or have ever worked for Omega/Tradestation? If
so then it is true there is no system that makes money commercial or
non-commercial.
If you do no nor ever have had a position at Omega/Tradestation then
yes there are plenty of systems that make money trading the eminis.
Yes some are totally automated, but I don't have one. I'm scared of
totally automated. I don't sell systems and wont sell you one but I
have a bunch of systems that work. I would never trade them but they
do make money. They are designed to work on the S&P and NASDAQ eminis
but not both without adjustment. Serious adjustment. Yes they hold
up long term. I'm a discretionary trader so mechanical systems are
fun to build but I can't build one to trade the way I do.
I would never buy a system from a vendor. I could never trade
a system that didn't suit my trading beliefs. I figure nearly all of
them are trash or will be soon anyway. Just my opinion. Ask yourself
why would anyone sell a system. If they can't trade it themselves why
don't they hire a monkey to do it for them. They will make more in
the market than they ever will selling systems.
So my BS is all opinion because I don't trade my own systems. I'll be
glad to send you a report on the one I'm working on but I don't
trade it so what value will it have?
Send me the whole history of the emini NASDAQ in TS2ki format or ASCII
and I will test it on all the data and send it to you. Otherwise I
can only send you a few months of testing. Better yet change your
approach to the market and build your own system. One really smart
guy posted to this list quite some time ago that you need to see
something in the market that works then code it. Now that isn't
exactly how he said it but it is close enough. Think about that.
They guy knows what he is talking about. Take any pattern that
happens then code it up. If it doesn't work then figure out what the
difference is between when it works and when it doesn't. Then code
that in. The guy that builds a good system is the guy that can see
what the market does and he can also figure out how to code it. I'm
al lousy coder but I can see the market pretty fair.
Then the really big trick is if you have the system can you actually
follow it? Can you do what it tells you? That alone probably takes
more than half the traders that buy or build a system out of the game.
Anyone agree with any of that BS?
Best regards,
Jimmy Snowden
mailto:jhsnowden@xxxxxxx
Monday, February 2, 2004, 3:48:37 PM, you wrote:
RH> I would like to entertain/stimulate a discussion about the myths/truths of
RH> emini stock index futures day trading systems. I have done a lot of research
RH> on this subject, and I'm not just trying to bait or badger system ideas out
RH> of anyone. I am sincerely interested in testing my own theories and debating
RH> the topic with others who share my interest....so here goes:
RH> My 8+ years of research so far on this subject has led me to hypothesize the
RH> following:
RH> 1. There is no proof that anyone has made money consistently using a 100%
RH> mechanical system to day trade emini stock index futures. This is not meant
RH> to insult those who claim to be doing so, or to call them liars. I am
RH> well-aware that many CLAIM to be making money consistently day-trading a
RH> 100% mechanical system on eminis, and I sincerely trust the honesty and
RH> integrity of these people. However, I have seen no PROOF that anyone does it
RH> consistently, year-after-year. I don't know or care how it would/could be
RH> proven, I just want to state my hypothesis that no such proof is available
RH> to the public. In other words, "the suggestion that one can day trade the
RH> emini stock index futures with an automated system has not been publicly
RH> proven."
RH> 2. One of the most "robust" commercially-available 100% mechanical systems
RH> for day trading the big S&P contract is the R-Mesa program. This conclusion
RH> is based on my search for the last 8 years of a viable system for trading
RH> the eminis. I have learned a lot about curve-fitting and "robustness." I
RH> understand that most systems are simply fit to past data. However, judging
RH> by published track records for every commercial S&P system I've ever seen,
RH> R-Mesa seems to be the only one that has performed consistently since 1985.
RH> I have asked the developer of R-Mesa (John Ehlers) and others about using
RH> mechanical systems on the eminis. The consensus seems to be that even the
RH> best big contract S&P systems will not "work" as well on the eminis, and
RH> that maybe NO system can work on the eminis. These ideas have led me to the
RH> following "master" hypothesis:
RH> 3. There is no commercially-available 100% mechanical system for day trading
RH> the emini futures that can show a "reasonably robust" performance record
RH> over the entire life history of the emini futures (works on over the
RH> life-of-contract for all 7 emini markets <2-7 years depending on the
contract>>). If such a system exists, then it is in very high demand and
RH> would become well-known to the public very quickly. Therefore, I have
RH> concluded it is "reasonable to assume" that no such system has been
RH> available since the emini futures began trading.
RH> Okay, those are three of the hypotheses I'm working with. I would appreciate
RH> an opportunity to discuss/debate this topic with others....assuming anyone
RH> else shares my fascination about this. I have even thought about writing a
RH> book about this, and I'm hoping that creating a thread here will help me
RH> gauge public interest in such a book. Maybe it's old news and I'm just slow
RH> to realize what everyone else already knows. Maybe I've missed some
RH> important information, or maybe I'm missing out on some great opportunities
RH> to become an emini systems day trader.
RH> I'm just another wannabe trader like everyone else. I've never made a dime
RH> trading futures, and I don't claim to have any secret power to help anyone
RH> else do so. I'm just a Tradestation "enthusiast" who's fascinated by the
RH> mystique and fantasy of day trading the emini futures. I'm currently trading
RH> a system on the YM, but I feel my expectations are reasonable. I don't
RH> "expect" the system to make money, and I've accepted it as at least 50%
RH> possible that I willI lose the max drawdown amount ($4000.00) of my system.
RH> I understand that there might be system-assist brokers or system vendors of
RH> questionable systems who will attack my ideas aggressively here (as they
RH> have on TradestationWorld). I only ask that we keep the conversation civil
RH> and avoid personal attacks. Attack my hypotheses, attack my research, but
RH> please don't start the name-calling that sometimes results when anyone
RH> proposes the notion that "mechanical systems trading is highly-speculative"
RH> I am sincerely opened to opposing views, and I promise to debate without
RH> resorting to personal attacks.
RH> Ron Hudson
RH> Tradestation 7 Easylanguage Specialist
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