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By what you're saying, maybe I should open a FOREX account and go long for
anything xxx/USD and short for anything USD/xxx.
As for my prediction on the DOW, I think it will hover just above 10,000
come June; probably 10,500. Dow will have to test 10,000 several times
before closing above it. Usually happens when indexes get close to a
psychological level like that. Today, the Dow touched 10,000 and promptly
plummeted. Same thing happened to NASDAQ Composite a week or two ago when
it hit 2000. NASDAQ hasn't been anywhere near 2000 since.
-----Original Message-----
From: daver [mailto:daver@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, December 08, 2003 11:25 PM
To: Omega-List; Gerald Marisch
Subject: RE: Wall St. Week Ahead Dow to Run at 10,000
So what - Foreign investors are figuring that putting USD into the Dow even
if it goes from 9965 to 11350 is an opportunity lost trade.
Unfortunately the 'Dow' is a US dollar denominated asset. The Fed and
Treasury can make the Dow by worth just about any number of USD they want to
get Bush re-elected (and they have). However, the real issue is whether
your investments are ahead in June 2004 against any real measure (what does
medical insurance cost, what does a trip to Paris cost in USD, what does
underwear made in China at WallMart cost, what does it cost to fill up your
car, how many Euros can you buy, how many ounces of Gold, etc, etc). Forget
Govt CPI number - that's pure baloney designed to get CPI indexed government
payments low (IE Social Security).
Beef, Copper, Gold, Silver etc etc are going through the roof. It is quite
likely that June 2004 will see a further 20% decline in the dollar (read
commodities up approx 20% - as in oil at $ 36/barrel). 'IF' you have $USD
100,000 invested in the DOW now at 9965; and 'IF' it hits it hits 11,350 by
June 2004, relative to say, a European or Japanese Investor in their
currencies you will have lost. An investment in
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