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Re: volatility system PROBLEM



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Hello dhiraj,
Check and see if the exchange NIFTY is on offer free intraday data,
If not they probably sell the data.
The cost of purchasing some tick data to properly test your system may
be less than you loose on your first trade.
Systematic trading requires thorough testing and strict discipline.
Trading without that will result in mental strain, second guessing the
system, and an inability to pull the trigger.
best regards
foolsgold

dsk> hello everybody,

dsk> i work on the indian stock markets and develop position trading 
dsk> strategies on the index - NIFTY.

dsk> i have been testing a volatility system and have got very nice 
dsk> results with a pretty smooth equity curve. but a very persistent 
dsk> problem exists. first i'll give a brief explanation about the 
dsk> system , then the problem.

dsk> the system checks if the range today (H-L) is less than the 14 day 
dsk> average true range. if yes than a position can be taken the next 
dsk> day. then i take a long position at the open of the next day + 1%, 
dsk> or a short position at open of the next day - 1%, effectively a 
dsk> long position if the market moves up and short position if the 
dsk> market trudges down. a stop is placed at 1% as well. so far so 
dsk> good, great results great equity.

dsk> the problem is on days that th market moves both ways the system 
dsk> takes a position in one direction and then takes another one in 
dsk> the other direction and holds the other position, in cases even 
dsk> ignoring the 1% stop. then the next day it holds the other 
dsk> position if profitable or then exits with a huge opening gap and a 
dsk> big loss.

dsk> so if market opens at 1000, goes to a high of 1020, the system 
dsk> takes a long at 1010, and if the low is 980 then takes a short 
dsk> position at 990 exitting the long with -20 points, and keeping a 
dsk> short open position.
dsk> now the sequence of high and low is not really known. also easy 
dsk> language assumes that the high would be made after the low if the 
dsk> close is up. how should i modify the system to take just one 
dsk> position, in whichever direction and if that is not possible 
dsk> should  i trade this system in its current form (assuming that the 
dsk> results anyways consider the largest losses that could occur on 
dsk> such big volatile days).

dsk> i "do not have intraday data" for the index and this testing has 
dsk> been done on daily data.

dsk> regards,
dsk> dhiraj kothari.


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