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TS alternatives, and more about scaling strategies



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At 5/19/2003 11:46 AM, Leslie Walko wrote:

Dear Mr. Bolotin et. al. :

It is my understanding that the Omega List participation rules
prohibit self promotion or advertising of products for financial
gain.  I am particularly offended by Mr. Bolotin's advertisement
of phantom product, namely his NOT COMMERCIALLY RELEASED
software.

Mr. Bolotin may or may not have a product.  We the readers of
Omega List are in no position to determine that since it is not
available to us.  Therefore any 'comparison' between TS or WLD
must be viewed, at best as opinion, or more realistically as
shameless advertisement.

Kindly desist from such actions.


As someone said recently, there has been constant conversation year after 
year about the desire for alternatives. When I post about an emerging 
alternative, most responses (mostly via private emails) are friendly from 
people with open minds and happy that a software developer is listening to 
what list members are asking for. But sometimes a negative response like 
this emerges.

Discussion about alternative products, including the ability for product 
vendors and aspiring product vendors to talk directly with their 
marketplace, is a tremendous resource for both vendors and software users. 
It is an advantage for omega list members who are interested in a 
competitive marketplace with alternatives available to be tolerant of a 
reasonable quantity of vendor posts. Competition in software has always 
proven to be a good thing for software users, and if some vendor discussion 
helps an emerging competitor survive and emerge with a product that 
accomplishes what some list members have been asking for, that is a good thing.

But don't get me wrong. I realize that a vendor needs to be reasonable 
about posting, and should gauge their posts based upon the interest shown 
in their posts. To keep posting when nobody is interested would obviously 
be wrong.

The following is a quote from the official rules I received when I 
subscribed to the omega list:

<<<<
Commercial Messages
-------------------
Please do not use this list to sell your phenomenal trading system.
If you have a product that helps solve a specific problem posed by a
list member, you may mention it in that context, but you must be
brief and specific.
>>>>

While the above quote does not specifically give guidelines for vendors of 
alternative trading software (which is a different case because trading 
software is neither a trading system or a solution to solve a specific 
problem), it does indicate that commercial messages are not prohibited. 
But, yes, certainly the moderator is clearly saying vendors should be 
reasonable.

Also, in addition to the official policy, it seems to me that the list is 
generally tolerant of reasonable product announcements and reasonable 
discussion of non-omega products. My first contact with all early users of 
PowerST emerged from my occasional posts about PowerST to the omega list. 
Clearly there are some list members who have been interested in my 
occasional posts.

I hope this does not start additional discussion, because there is nothing 
more useless than discussion about list etiquette, with people making off 
topic posts to complain about what they feel is an off topic post. I 
suppose I am guilty of this myself with this post, but I don't enjoy being 
insulted, and it is hard not to respond to an attack like this.

I have no plans to make additional posts about PowerST at this time anyway.

Also, just a little technical note on 'advanced features'.

Anyone who charges money for 'scaling / pyramiding' by claiming
that this is some kind of major functional advance must believe
that TradeStation Users are complete programming idiots.  I wrote
my own scaling system in Easy Language, AND wrote the algorithms
to correctly record the results and compute performance
statistics when the scaling feature is turned on.  The whole
thing was less then 100 lines of Easy Language.  So Mr. Bolotin,
your claim of 'powerful features' makes me laugh.  What a joke!
Sign a non-disclosure agreement so that someone can write
'special code' for me what I can code in Easy Language in a few
lines.  :-)

Leslie


The scaling strategy I mentioned cannot be done in TradeStation because it 
involves portfolio level money management, which TradeStation does not 
support. For example, a simple example would be to start with the strategy 
of never risking more than 5% of your account on one trade or 20% of your 
account on all open trades. Say your system uses a trailing stop. As a 
trade moves profitable, the trailing stop will eventually reach the trade 
entry price. Your risk on that trade is now $0 (of course, this is 
discussion is excluding slippage). So, here is an interesting idea. Since 
you were willing to risk 5% on the initial trade you could consider adding 
more contracts to the trade at this break even point and bring your current 
$0 risk back up to the 5% of account level. Also, (somewhat as an aside) 
let's not forget that it is also necessary still limit the new position 
size upon the scale up to stay within the constraint that the risk of all 
trades in all markets (and possibly additional systems trading the same 
markets if you are trading multiple systems) cannot exceed 20% of account 
equity.

The advantage of this scaling up approach is that you will end up trading 
larger position sizes while still staying within the risk constraints of 
the money management strategy. The disadvantage is that on profitable 
trades you are holding more risk for longer by max'ing out your risk a 
second time with the scale up. Whether this is a good tradeoff will likely 
depend on the nature of the trading system. In particular, what tends to 
happen as trades move profitable? In general, a trade moving profitable 
could be viewed as a confirmation of the trend. If this confirmation means 
that expectations for the ultimate outcome of trade become better, it might 
be a good tradeoff to carry some risk for longer by taking the scale up. In 
exchange you get a larger position size, and therefore increased profit for 
the winning trades that catch a sustained trend. In other words, if the 
nature of the system is that once a trade moves profitable the trend tends 
to continue, then this could be a good tradeoff which will increase 
ultimate profits.

I find this an interesting concept. With the scaling feature I am working 
on, it will be possible to historically test how adding these scale ups as 
trades become profitable affects long term performance.

This is a portfolio level money management strategy because when I say "5% 
of your account", in historical testing that means 5% of total combined 
portfolio equity. It requires that the trading strategy have access to, at 
the end of each bar, the current combined portfolio equity for all markets 
and systems being traded. Then, this combined portfolio equity is used to 
make the percent risk position sizing decisions about new trades and scale ups.

Another reason why this a portfolio level strategy is because of the rule 
about never risking more than 20% of your account on all open trades. That 
requires not only combined portfolio equity at the end of each bar, but 
also knowledge of the open risk of the current open trades in other markets 
and systems.

What I describe above is only the start of the capabilities of the scaling 
feature I am working on. I am describing the simplest example I can think 
of that explains why this is something that cannot be done with TradeStation.

Bob Bolotin
President, RDB Computing, Inc.
Developer of "PowerST: The Power System Tester"
http://www.powertesting.com
bob@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
847-982-1910