|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hello Alex,
I applied a few systems to S&P Cot data a while back and came to the
conclusion that you don't need RT or delayed data to trade the 'uncut'
approach, just access to the internet, pen and paper, subtract
commercial shorts from commercial longs and you have a very effective
oscillator or 'market timing' tool. As the data is publicly available
weekly it ensures that you don't overtrade. And because no parameters
are required theres no optimization.
And as for your assertion that commercials are 'generally' wrong and
Mike's that they have been wrong for the past 6 months? See the system
report I sent a month ago. 60% wins and PF >3 over the past 8 years?
(Longs - Shorts) is still short, basis May 2000. Plainly the
commercials believe this earnings recession still has legs and are
selling whilst shorter term traders are buying the dips - the net
position for the past 3 weeks has diverged from price so we can expect
further falls. Something about always deferring to the higher time
frame?
Larry Williams should have given credit to MB for his market breadth
system - but few of us are capable of 'truly' original ideas.
If anyone would like the commercial longs and short txt files back to
94 for the S&P then email me as they are too large to attach and send
to the list.
>>Also, his reliance on COT (a chart is provided in the article) as a "fund=
>>amental" --- apparently he chooses to go with the direction of the commer=
>>cial traders who are usually right --- however, my studying of an S&P COT=
>> chart for last 4 to 6 months shows commercials were pretty wrong this ti=
>>me around.
AM> The commercial traders are usually "wrong" only from a speculator's
AM> point of view. The commercials have their own agenda different from
AM> speculators, and this includes hedging and scale trading (which will
AM> look like being on the "wrong" side of the market to a speculator).
AM> I bought one of Larry's courses where he went into this in detail.
AM> He doesn't follow the commercials; he waits until they have reached
AM> an extreme net long or short position and then trades in the
AM> opposite direction. The idea here is that the commercials drive
AM> the market turns -- that is, they scale trade, buying as the market
AM> declines and selling as the market rises, and when the commercials
AM> are exhausted to the point where they can't get any more net long or
AM> net short, the market turns.
AM> In the "Money Tree" course Larry would pin-point market turns in just
AM> about any market (worked best in ags and metals) by waiting until the
AM> commercial COT and the Bullish Consensus were diametrically opposed.
AM> These are good set-ups.
--
Best regards,
Michael mailto:michaelstewart@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
|