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For at least the past 2 years, generally, when stocks have gone down, bonds
have gone up -- it works intraday and of course longer time frames. I see
it work almost every day and take positions in bonds exactly opposite
stocks. Bonds should pop up tomorrow on the open (in fact they're already
up tonight) and rates likewsie should fall because the stock market has
fallen. I don't know how long this will last but by now it's a pretty
entrenched pattern.
-----Original Message-----
From: Kent Rollins [mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, November 11, 2002 10:36 PM
To: OmegaList
Subject: Re: Larry Williams interview in Active Trader
When bonds go up, interest rates go down. This is positive for stocks. I
believe positive correlations have been found between the stock and bond
markets with bond moves preceding stocks by about 60 days. Of course, the
correlation does not always hold up and in extreme cases like the most
recent bottom in the S&P, the 2 markets trade in opposite directions due to
short term money flows.
Kent
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mike Steckel" <steckel@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, November 11, 2002 9:23 PM
Subject: Larry Williams interview in Active Trader
Anybody read the interview of LW in Active Trader -- latest issue ?
I've never seen Larry admit before in all his books, etc. what he said now
that he uses Advance Decline as a major part of his analysis to trader the
S&P futures. Did he just awake to this ?
Also, his reliance on COT (a chart is provided in the article) as a
"fundamental" --- apparently he chooses to go with the direction of the
commercial traders who are usually right --- however, my studying of an S&P
COT chart for last 4 to 6 months shows commercials were pretty wrong this
time around.
Also on fundamentals, he states that overall a rallying bond market
foretells (supports ?) a bullish S&P futures market and that rallying gold
market is bearish on S&P.
I have not seen that relationship with the bonds to S&P and I'm curious what
time frame he's commenting on because I often see rallying bond market
indicating fear or bad news, which next results in S&P futures (and
equities) turning bearish.
Mike
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