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Hey, if it works it works, and simple is always good - too many parameters
or degrees of freedom just cause curve fitting anyway.
What would concern me is the relatively small size of average trades. AT
€38 per roundtrip you need low commissions and low slippage, i.e.
non-retail level. To run a trailing stop loss of only 5 points you need
very fast or better yet, automated order entry.
I looked at a 45-minute chart of Euro Stoxx just now, and there's nothing
in there that would cause me to make 5 roundtrips today alone. What are
the dampening factors for your averages ? Are they something really short
like 3 and 8 bars ? In that case you may be trading noise and getting
lucky. If they are longer, what is triggering the entries and exits,
because the indicators aren't ?
Lastly, again with €38 per roundtrip I wouldn't like to hold positions
overnight - a single bad morning open could take 20+ trades to dig out of.
At 14:35 07/08/02 +0200, Alain Beyeler wrote:
>After I learned how to use EasyLanguage I started to program and test my
>trading systems. Most of them are build out of a combination of some
>indicator or oscillators and two time frames or two markets. I have never
>spent any time on simple trading methologies.
>
>Now yesterday evening I was thinking about how much more simple my trading
>could be. Then as i woke up this moring I made a very simple test with a
>XMovingAverage. XAverage > XAverage[1] then buy and the other way around
>for a sell signal or cover. I added this to a 45 Minutes Chart of the
>EuroStoxx Future (two years of data) with a trailing stopp of 5 points or
>50€. The profits were incredible for such a simple system with no money
>management. no optimisation. Profitfactor: 2.4, Avg Trade: 38€.
>
>Do I miss something very important? I added it this moring to real time and
>to my account and it's up 340€ on one contract with 5 trades so far.
>
>I'm just little confused because I have spend so much time on developing
>trading systems with all different kinds of combinations of indicators,
>patterns, other markets and more and now just adding something very basic it
>looks better than 90% of all my hardly worked developed systems.
>
>alain
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