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PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
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One site is the USDA (www.usda.gov). I don't have the exact link since I
get the report directly. You may want to search for WASD or World
Agriculture Supply and Demand. This group is in bed with Cornell
University on their historical data so you may want to check their
website also.
Building a good model takes forever. Being a fundamentalist is hard and
expensive work and therefore most people go for the easier and less
expensive technical approach. IMO, the changes made in the government
programs in 1998, make model forecasting much, much harder today. With
just a very few exception, the "loan rate" or the "loan rate + carrying
charges" used to be the rock bottom low price that a market would ever
go to. The government then changed to a "marketing loan". This means
that now prices can and do drop below the "official loan rate".
So if you think about that for a second, you may see that prior to 98
you needed a model that had the loan rate as a variable, but now that
variable is worthless. Makes it tough!
Futures markets covered by WASD: corn, Chi wheat, Minn wheat, KC wheat,
oats, beans, bean oil, meal, rice, cotton, domestic sugar, live cattle,
live hogs. I'm not sure about feeder cattle and bellies.
Good luck,
Robin
rcotten@xxxxxxxxxxxx
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